TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER - bi.go.id · Filipina . T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9 %,mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm) Inflasi Bawang Merah 5.80 0.07 Kentang 14.14 0.04

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 1

TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER

September 2013

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 2

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 3

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 4

Penjualan Mobil (skala kanan)

Penjualan Eceran

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 5

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 6

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 7

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 8

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Philippines Thailand Korea

China Indonesia Malaysia

bps

Source: Bloomberg

b bpsCredit Default Swap USD 5 Year Senior

Filipina

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9

%,mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm)

Inflasi

Bawang Merah 5.80 0.07

Kentang 14.14 0.04

Beras 0.60 0.03

Tomat 14.10 0.03

Daging Sapi 1.93 0.02

Tempe 2.55 0.01

Tahu 2.78 0.01

Deflasi

Bawang Putih 9.61 0.03

Wortel 8.39 0.01

Telur Ayam Ras 1.25 0.01

Daging Ayam Ras 0.59 0.01

Cabe Merah 0.63 0.01

Data : BPS

KomoditasAgustus 2013

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10

80

100

120

140

160

180

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Indeks%,yoy

Administered Prices

Ekspektasi Inflasi (SPE 3 bln), RHS

Ekspektasi Inflasi SPE 6 bln, RHS

Ekspektasi ↑ sebelum kebijakan diberlakukan

5.40 5.405.30

5.60

5.80

5.50

5.20 5.105.20 5.30

5.20 5.205.30

5.20

5.10

5.40

5.60

5.90

6.907.00

5.20

5.20

5.10 5.10

5.00

5.20

5.80

6.10

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2012 2013

%,yoy

Ekspektasi Inflasi 2013

Ekspektasi Inflasi 2014

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12

Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul

BI Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.50

Penjaminan Deposito 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 5.75

Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 5.39 5.42 5.40 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90

Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 11.78 11.73 11.70 11.68 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66

Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.42 11.35 11.36 11.29 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29

Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 13.92 13.69 13.67 13.60 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06

2012Suku Bunga (%)

2013

11

.49

11

.29

13

.40

12

.11

11

.45

11

.27

13

.22

12

.02

11

.44

11

.24

13

.28

12

.03

11

.44

11

.21

13

.22

12

.00

11

.46

11

.17

13

.20

11

.99

11

.41

11

.14

13

.14

11

.93

11

.66

11

.29

13

.06

12

.05

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK RRT

Jan-13 Feb-13

Mar-13 Apr-13

May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS

%

Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 6.15%

%

5.90

12.05

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13

-10 0 10 20 30 40

Pertanian

Pertambangan

Industri Pengolahan

Listrik, Air dan Gas

Konstruksi

Perdagangan

Pengangkutan

Jasa Dunia Usaha

Jasa Sosial

Lainnya Pangsa Jul-13 (%)

Jul-13 (Kontribusi)

Jul-13 (%yoy)

Jul-13 (%ytd)

%

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14

Indikator

Utama Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli

Total Aset (T Rp) 3,902.5 3,923.8 4,009.4 4,028.8 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3

DPK (T Rp) 2,961.4 2,984.1 3,050.0 3,070.6 3,130.5 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9

Kredit * (T Rp) 2,470.1 2,510.6 2,555.9 2,585.4 2,631.0 2,742.7 2,687.4 2,742.7 2,792.7 2,844.9 2,909.1 2,982.4 3,045.5

LDR* (%) 83.4 84.1 83.8 84.2 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0

NPLs Gross* (%) 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9

CAR (%) 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0

NIM (%) 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5

ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0

* tanpa channeling

20132012

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

M2 M1 BI Rate (RHS)

%, yoy %

Rata-rata periode sebelum krisis Mei 2006-Sept 2008 M1: 21.5%, M2: 15,7%

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG

-9,0%

-7,2%

11,5%

-15,3%

-12,3%

-6,9%

-6,1%

-9,4%

6,1%

-16,3%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

IHSG

Infrastructure

Mining

Finance

Basic Industry

Misc. Industry

Consumption

Trade

Agriculture

Property

Monthly Changes

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30

Spread Juli 2013 - Aug 2013Jul-13Aug-13

% bps

Tenor

(1,9)

1,4

5,2 5,8

5,3

4,1

2,8

(2,9)

(11,0)

1,4

(1,6)

5,7

7,3

(5,8)

(2,9)

4,1

(3,9)

(8,6)

3,7

(7,7)

3,5

(2,0)

5,5

(2,8)

0,6

2,0

(5,6)

4,4 4,6

(8,9)

(1,8)(2,1)

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

(15,0)

(10,0)

(5,0)

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June July

Augu

st

Sept Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Mei

Juni Juli

Agus

tus

Sept Okt

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Mei

Juni Juli

Agus

tus

2011 2012 2013

Short Term Mid Term Long Term 'yield SBN'

Rp T%

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 18

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 19

Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt

SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM

Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 4.46 4.54 4.67 4.75 4.77 4.80 4.84 4.86 4.87 4.89 5.02 5.28 5.52 -

Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) 5.39 5.42 5.40 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 -

Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) 5.67 5.61 5.69 5.66 5.81 5.76 5.89 5.92 5.64 5.73 5.68 5.72 5.99 -

JIBOR satu minggu 2) 4.17 4.29 4.24 4.27 4.29 4.32 4.30 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.27 4.46 4.93 -

IHSG Indeks 3) 4,142 4,060 4,263 4,350 4,276 4,317 4,454 4,796 4,941 5,034 5,069 4,819 4,610 4,195

BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)

Uang Primer 634,993 657,955 638,869 648,106 647,979 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935 667,122 681,508 691,678 750,446 -

M1(C+D) 771,792 772,429 795,518 774,983 801,403 841,721 787,916 786,606 810,112 832,273 822,930 858,557 903,287 -

Uang Kartal (C) 315,375 327,059 325,566 326,119 327,069 361,967 326,885 321,541 331,226 324,393 334,087 347,204 407,233 -

Uang giral (D) 456,417 445,370 469,952 448,864 474,334 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 507,880 488,843 511,353 496,054 -

Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 3,055,476 3,089,965 3,126,525 3,162,746 3,206,165 3,305,744 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,529,664 -

Uang kuasi (T) 2,270,751 2,305,427 2,319,550 2,377,122 2,394,355 2,453,602 2,470,101 2,483,011 2,500,342 2,515,813 2,588,094 2,543,285 2,607,964 -

Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 12,932 12,108 11,457 10,640 10,406 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132 12,902 15,335 11,594 18,413 -

Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 3,057,389 3,091,620 3,128,237 3,164,504 3,207,967 3,307,577 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,529,664 -

Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 936,305 955,709 975,633 990,455 989,138 965,442 960,233 937,714 947,362 940,165 935,590 833,821 797,224 -

Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 2,121,084 2,135,911 2,152,604 2,174,049 2,218,829 2,342,135 2,308,612 2,342,764 2,375,225 2,420,822 2,490,768 2,579,616 2,732,440 -

Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 279,040 271,398 298,897 285,784 313,325 389,827 378,366 361,337 366,902 341,302 322,822 330,871 377,124 -

Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,664,719 2,693,174 2,754,538 2,787,802 2,830,066 2,917,452 2,894,235 2,924,875 2,973,874 3,028,028 3,109,337 3,180,790 3,234,370 -

PERTUMBUHAN BESARAN MONETER (%,YOY)

Uang Primer 14.41 5.20 13.04 14.45 13.92 14.89 11.77 13.22 13.46 11.82 12.65 10.25 18.18 -

M1(C+D) 20.65 16.54 21.25 16.54 20.04 16.42 13.15 15.13 13.42 15.45 9.80 10.15 17.04 -

Uang Kartal (C) 14.50 0.72 16.60 15.92 17.20 17.61 14.20 14.79 15.39 11.53 13.34 10.34 29.13 -

Uang giral (D) 25.30 31.73 24.70 17.00 22.09 15.54 12.42 15.36 12.10 18.09 7.51 10.03 8.68 -

Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 19.14 17.88 18.28 18.11 17.46 14.89 14.50 15.11 14.10 14.82 14.52 11.87 15.52 -

Uang kuasi (T) 18.61 18.61 17.53 18.84 16.96 14.66 15.14 15.45 14.54 14.83 16.19 12.77 14.85 -

Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 24.06 -18.02 -16.14 -14.69 -29.43 -27.58 -19.24 -30.98 -17.86 -16.49 1.68 -30.20 42.38 -

Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 19.22 17.94 18.34 18.18 17.53 14.96 14.41 15.02 14.01 14.72 14.42 11.81 15.45 -

Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih -3.77 -2.23 6.17 8.48 5.26 5.84 2.80 -0.47 2.29 -2.41 -3.66 -9.91 -14.85 -

Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 33.27 29.94 24.83 23.19 23.97 19.19 20.05 22.66 19.47 23.12 23.10 21.26 28.82 -

Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 29.14 26.56 25.78 10.95 28.07 11.01 17.43 22.02 23.49 40.38 34.48 16.37 35.15 -

Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 24.49 22.11 22.45 22.09 21.06 22.39 21.82 21.64 20.61 20.10 20.13 20.03 21.38 -

Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63 -0.10 -0.03 1.03 3.29 1.12

Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57 5.47 5.90 8.61 8.79

Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,485 9,560 9,588 9,615 9,605 9,670 9,698 9,664 9,718 9,723 9,795 9,925 10,278 10,920

Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 13,168 11,238 13,011 12,636 13,202 12,313 12,386 11,897 12,727 12,480 13,308 11,970 12,874 -

Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 13,282 10,366 11,733 13,053 12,479 11,715 11,608 11,619 10,969 12,792 13,200 12,127 13,327 -

Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8

Konsumsi 4.5 3.9 4.7 4.7

Investasi (PMTB) 9.8 7.3 5.9 4.7

Perubahan Stok -9.5 94.6 16.5 -0.6

Ekspor -2.6 0.5 3.6 4.8

Impor -0.2 6.8 -0.1 0.6

1) minggu terakhir

2) rata-rata tertimbang

3) penutupan pada akhir periode

4) closed file

Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS

Tw.II

2013

2012

Tw.IV

2012

Tw.III Tw.I

2013

H A R G A

SEKTOR EKSTERNAL

INDIKATOR KUARTALAN

SEKTOR KEUANGAN