Systems Thinking & Modelling PROGRAM STUDI ADMINISTRASI BISNIS UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA Oleh: Wilopo
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Systems Thinking & Modelling
PROGRAM STUDI ADMINISTRASI BISNIS UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA
Oleh: Wilopo
FenomenaSuatu fenomena menyangkut 2 hal (aspek):
(1) Struktur (Structure) (2) Perilaku (Behavior)
A
A A
A
Pemahaman hubungan struktur dan perilaku sangat diperlukan dalam mengenali suatu fenomena
(Unsur Pembentuk Fenomena Dan Pola Keterkaitan Antar Unsur Tersebut)
(Perubahan Suatu Besaran/Variable Dalam Suatu Kurun Waktu Tertentu, Baik Kuantitatof
Maupun Kwalitatif)
Perilaku (Behavior)
Perilaku adalah perubahan suatu besaran atau variable terhadap waktu atau catatatan tentang
magnitude (besar, nilai, angka) sesuatu dalam kurun waktu tertentu (pertumbuhan, penurunan, osilisasi,
stagnan, atau kombinasinya)
Struktur (Structure)1. Struktur Fisik : stok dan jaringan aliran materi, orang, energi, bahan
2. Struktur Pengabilan keputusan (decision making structure): akumulasi dan jaringan aliran informasi yang digunakan oleh aktor-aktor (manusia) dalam proses pembuatan keputusannya
6.1.3 Time Horizon The simulation model is designed to run for 84 months. This period was set to match the case, which took place from 1998 to 2005. Moreover, no forecasted time was included in the model because the objective of this simulation was to recreate history to validate the coherency of the dynamic paradigm in explaining a small firm’s growth.
6.2 Dynamic Hypothesis1
6.2.1 Submodels Diagram:
In Figure 6, the illustrated diagram shows the eight submodules that represent different demand and supply capacities that entrepreneurs manage to sustain growth.
The following is a short description for each submodule, which will be elaborated in detail later:
Advertising Spending: This submodule represents the dynamics of optimizing advertising spending. It takes into consideration the effects of uncertainty, internal information delay and limited know-how on the Return on Investment ROI in advertising.
Customers: This submodule represents customers’ acquisition and loss dynamics, including the effects of advertising, sales forces and differences in adoption rate.
1 Please refer to the attached document 'Complete Model Documentation', for formal model description, including a detailed stock-flow diagram, mathematical formulation and variables description.
Figure 5: Submodels Diagram
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMS THINKING AND
MODELLING (ST &M) (Mani & Cavana, 2000)
1. Problem Structuring
2. Causal Loop Modelling
3. Dynamic Modelling
4. Scenario Planning and Modelling
5. Implementation and Organisational Learning (Learning Lab)
Problem Structuring
Causal Loop Modelling
Dynamic Modelling
Scenario Planning and Modelling
Implementation and Organisational Learning
1. Iden'fy problems or issues of concern to management
2. Collect preliminary informa'on and data
1Problem Structuring
1. Develop a systems map or rich picture
2. Define variable types and construct stock-‐flow diagram
3. Collect detailed informa'on and data
4. Develop a simula'on model
5. Simulate steady-‐state/stability condi'ons
6. Reproduce reference mode behaviour (base case)
7. Validate the model
8. Perform sensi'vity analysis
9. Design and analyse policies
10.Develop and test strategies
Causal Loop Modelling 2
1. Develop a systems map or rich picture
2. Define variable types and construct stock-‐flow diagram
3. Collect detailed informaAon and data
4. Develop a simulaAon model
5. Simulate steady-‐state/stability condiAons
6. Reproduce reference mode behaviour (base case)
7. Validate the model
8. Perform sensiAvity analysis
9. Design and analyse policies
10.Develop and test strategies
3Dynamic Modelling
1. Plan general scope of scenarios
2. Iden4fy key drivers of change and keynote uncertain4es
3. Construct forced and learning scenarios
4. Simulate scenarios with the model
5. Evaluate robustness of the policies and strategies
Scenario Planning and Modelling 4
Implementation and Organisational Learning
1. Prepare a report and presenta4on to management team
2. Communicate results and insights of proposed interven4on to stakeholders
3. Develop a microworld and learning lab based on the simula4on model
4. Use learning lab to examine mental models and facilitate learning in the organisa4on.
5
Systems Thinking Models
1. Archetypes 2. Causal Loop Diagrams 3. Stocks and Flows
Bahasa Pemodelan
GENERIC FEEDBACK LOOP
REINFORCING & BALANCING
\
Archetypes
Archetypes
• Sistem Archetypes adalah kombinasi umpan balik Reinforcing dan Balancing yang umum terjadi.
• Mereka terdiri dari dua atau lebih umpan balik. !
• Setiap Archetypes mempunya karakteristik tema, pengalaman khusus, pola perilaku kinerja antar waktu, struktur, mental model dan intervensi-intervensi yang effektif.
Mengapa Archetypes?• Membuat berfikir sistem lebih jelas; • Juga mudah dipahami karena Archetypes sering
terjadi; • Menjadi mudah untuk disharingkan; dan • Mengalihkan perhatian dari menyelahkan ke
pencarian bersama.
POLA DASAR ARCHETYPES
• Bahwa tidak semua problem manajemen bersifat unik. • Terdapat pola-pola struktur (patterns of structure) yang
terjadi berulang. • Pola-pola struktur itu bisa terjadi di semua tingkat dan
skala organisasi, dari dinamika internal yang sangat personal sampai hubungan internasional tingkat global.
• Karena itu telah diidentifikasi ada generic structure atau systems structure.
POLA DASAR ARCHETYPES
• “Kata kerja” dan “kata benda” dalam systems thinking: reinforcing, balancing dan delay.
• “Kalimat dasar” atau “cerita sederhana” dalam systems thinking: systems archetypes.
• Penyederhanaan dari kompleksitas. • Suatu systems archetype dapat terjadi pada bidang-
bidang yang berbeda (biology, ekonomi, politik, psychology, manajemen dll)
• Bahasa yang dapat menyajikan secara eksplisit fenomena berulang dalam organisasi
Structure R (Reinforcing Loop)
• They compound change in one direction with even more change in that direction!• Reinforcing loop can be seen as the engines of growth and collapse
Structure R!(Reinforcing Loop)
Employee Performance
Supervisor’s Supportive Behavior
Unsupportive Behavior
Structure
S
S
Perf. Level
Time
Behavior Over Time
Supportive Behavior
Employee Performance
Supervisor’s Supportive Behavior
S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S stands for "same direction” O stands for "opposite direction” ! or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium ! or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change
+ /- /
Structure B (Balancing Loop)
They resist change in one direction by producing change in the opposite direction
BALANCING Loop can be seen as the goal seeking or equilibrium
Structure B (Balancing Loop)
Discrepancy
Inventory Adjustment
Structure
Actual Inventory
Desired Inventory
Desired Inventory
Time
Behavior Over Time
100
100 - -
100 ++
Actual Inventory
S
S
S
O
S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S stands for "same direction” O stands for "opposite direction” ! or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium ! or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change
+ /- /
DELAYS : In many systemic structure delays play a
hidden but important role
DELAYS
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