Rei-Indonesia Property Industry Prosfect 2009

Prospek Prospek Industri Properti Indonesia Industri Properti Indonesia

tahun 2009tahun 2009

Persatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI)Dewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)

F. TEGUH SATRIA

PROPERTIPROPERTI

� Perumahan

� Perkantoran� Pusat Belanja� Resort / Hotel

Subsidi

Non Subsidi

RSH

Rusunami

Landed Houses

Vertical Houses/High Rise

SEGMENTASI PASAR SEGMENTASI PASAR PERUMAHANPERUMAHAN

� ATAS

� MENENGAH

� BAWAH

2000jt

1000jt

500jt

150jt

55jt

ATAS

ATAS

MENENGAH

BAWAH

RUSUNAMI SUBSIDI & RS NON SUBSIDI

RSH SUBSIDI

RENTAL

SOCIAL

FORMALSECTOR

INFORMALSECTOR

PREDIKSI 2009 PREDIKSI 2009 –– SEKTOR SEKTOR PERUMAHANPERUMAHAN

� INDIKATOR EKONOMI◦ Subsidi: Tahun 2008 = 800 M

Tahun 2009 = 2.500 M◦ ASUMSI APBN tahun 2009

- Growth Tahun 2009 = 6,2 %

- Inflasi Tahun 2009 = 6,5 %- BI Rate Tahun 2009 = 8,5 %

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agst Sep Okt Nov Des

Tahun 2008

%

9

8

7

BI Rate tahun 2008

Low Cost Low Cost ApartmentDevelopmentsDevelopments

7

� Government of Indonesia’s Vision: New 1000 towers of low cost apartments in the next 5 years

◦ 60% in the Greater Jakarta� High rise apartment towers

◦ 40% outside the Greater Jakarta

� Walk up apartments (Low Rise/Medium Rise)

� More than 500 hectare of land bank required for these new developments

◦ Government/state land� PP 06/2006: state land selling price must be higher than NJOP

� PP 38/2008: state land selling price could be lower than NJOP as long as for low cost apartment developments

◦ Land consolidation/urban renewals

◦ Private land

Development ProgressDevelopment Progress

8

PROGRESS OF LOW COST APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM31 September 2008

I. GREATER JAKARTA

NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT

1 Pulo Gebang PT. Primaland Internusa Development 0,4 1 390

2 Cawang PT. CHD 0,5 1 731

3 Penggilingan Cakung PT. Nusuno Karya 1,1 3 444

4 Cibubur Jaktim PT. Rajawali Core Indonesia 0,46 4 471

5 Cipayung PT. Bina kualita Teknik 6,8 6 2400

6 Jl. Arjuna, Kebun Jeruk Jakbar PT. Anggana Development 0,5 1 684

7 Kebagusan, Jakarta Selatan PT. Perdana Gapura Prima, Tbk 5 5 2000

8Perumahan Modernland, Tanggerang

PT. Modernland Realty, Tbk 1,7 3 1200

9 Jl. Pegangsaan II Kelapa Gading PT. Tiara Metropolitan Jaya 4 17 6380


9


10 Ciledug PT. Binakarya Jaya Abadi 0,74 1 1000

11 Pulo Gebang PT. Bakrieland Development 3 6 2300

12 Daan Mogot km.14 Jakbar PT. Inten Cipta Sakti 4,7 3 3200

13 Pulo jahe, Jatinegara, Jaktim PT. Cakra Sarana Persada 3,5 6 3070

14 Megacity PT. Mahkota Kemayoran Realty 22 68 24000

15 Pancoran Residence, Jaksel PT. Graha Reyhan Triputra 6 7 5400

16 Jababeka PT. Graha Buana Cikarang 10 20 3000

17 Apartemen Bintaro hijau PT. Bintaro Hijau Lestari 2 3 2000

18 Gading icon PT. Mahardika 3,3 6 3000

19 Pesanggrahan PT. Esta Sarana Lestari 1,7 8 1500

20 Kelapa Gading PT. Mahardika Propertindo 3 8 3200

21 Menara Latumeten PT. Anggana Margahayuland 1,1 2 1400

10



22 Cengkareng PT. Reka Rumanda Agung 3,7 10 3946

23 Menara Pekayon PT. Kasama Ganda 2,4 6 2400

24 Kalibata Residence PT. Pradani Sukses Abadi 12,7 45 16100

25 PT. Satwika Permai Indah 2 4 576

26 Ciledug PT. Sari Indah Lestari 1,2 3 1200

27 Depok PT. Mahardika Propertindo 1 3 990

28 Bintaro PT. Bahama Development 1,8 3 1550

29 PT. Arsidinamika Cipta 1,4 2 864

30 PT. Bangun Megah Pratama 2 3 2990

TOTAL 109,7 258 98386

11


I. OTHER CITIES


1 Batam PT. Dimas Pratama Indah 14 36 5000

2 Bandung 23 5000

� Hak pakai 25 tahun � 70 tahun� Hunian Baru� Batasan Harga Minimal ( USD 100,000 )� Batasan Jumlah per Kawasan @ tower

(max.49%)◦ POTENSI :�10.000 unit/tahun @ USD 250,000 / unit

- USD 2,500 million/tahun�Expenses/year� TAX� Penyerapan tenaga kerja� Dll… 12

KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK ORANG ASINGORANG ASING

� LEGISLATIF- 200.000 Caleg @ Rp. 200 jt/caleg = 40 T- PARTAI

� PILPRES

13

PEMILU 2009PEMILU 2009

Jakarta CBD Office MarketJakarta CBD Office Market

� Construction of new office buildings has been active since 2005, spurred by tenant expansions.

� Average occupancy increased from 79% in 2004 to 88% as of end April 2008.� Average base rental rates in USD increased by 4 % per year during that period.� The market is cautious due to high level of future supply of 530,000 sqm, to be

completed by end 2009.

JAKARTA CBD OFFICE MARKET CUMULATIVE SUPPLY, DEMAND, OCCUPANCY

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P

70%

72%

74%

77%

79%

81%

83%

86%

88%

90%

Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Occupancy Rate

Cumulative Supply, Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate

Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008

15

� Strong consumer spending post economic crisis 1997-2001 has enticed developers to build new retail centers.

� Massive new strata title retail space completed since 2003 has push down the average occupancy from 86 % in 2003 to 78% in 2007.

� Prime shopping malls with strong retail concept and tenancy mix,however, managed to maintain beyond 90% occupancy levels

Jakarta Retail MarketJakarta Retail Market

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

Cumulativ e Supply Cumulativ e Demand Occupancy Rate

Cumulativ e Supply and Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate


16

� New supply continues to enter the market. Total cumulative existing supply was 60,313 units at the end of March 2008, of which 95% have been sold

� Middle price segment dominated the market.

� Despite large amount of future supply, developers continue to launch new projects

� Average occupancy level decreased, but more Indonesian currently lives in strata title apartments.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sales Rate

Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Sales Rate

Cumulative Supply & Demand (in units)

Jakarta Strata Title Apartment Jakarta Strata Title Apartment MarketMarket

17

� Landed residential developments remain active, evidenced by the increase of developed area as a result of new housing clusters launched.

� Tangerang/West Jakarta continued to enjoy the highest monthly take up due to better accessibility and good supporting infrastructure.

� Land price, sales rate and occupancy rate remained stable over the past 6 months.

Greater Jakarta Residential Estate Greater Jakarta Residential Estate MarketMarket

JABOTABEK RESIDENTIAL MARKET PLANNED AND DEVELOPED AREA

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1

hectares

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Planned Area Developed Area

Propotion of Developed Area (%) Sales Rate


18

0

50

100

150

200

250

Hon

g K

ong

Tok

yo

Sin

gapo

re

Seo

ul

HC

MC

Sha

ngha

i

Bei

jing

Tai

pei

Han

oi

Gua

ngzh

ou

She

nzhe

n

Jaka

rta

Kua

laLu

mpu

r

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

US$ per sq.m. net per mth.

Prime Offices Rents, 1 Jan 2008

Regional Property Market Regional Property Market OverviewOverview� Rents of office and retail space in Jakarta are considered low compared

to those located in other Asian major cities.

19

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900T

okyo

Hon

g K

ong

Sin

gapo

re

Tai

pei

Gua

ngzh

ou

Sha

ngha

i

Seo

ul

Bei

jing

HC

MC

Kua

laLu

mpu

r

Jaka

rta

Han

oi

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

US$ per sq.m. net per mth. Prime Retail Mall Rents, 1 Jan 2008

Regional Property Market Regional Property Market OverviewOverview

20

New Trends: New Trends: Retail Center Developments Retail Center Developments Outside JavaOutside Java

� Growing middle income segment of Indonesian population

� Good potential for new retail centers in the cities outside Javawith 500,000 – 1,000,000 population

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

A (Above Rp2 mil/month)

B (Rp1.5-2 mil/month)

C1 (Rp1.0-1.5 mil/month)

C2 (Rp 0.7-1.5 mil/month)

D (Rp0.5-0.7 mil/month)

E (Below Rp 0.5 mil/month)

Socio-Economic Survey * in Indonesia, 2001-2006

*AC Nielsen Socio-Economic Survey is based on monthly household expenditure, not actual income.

KESIMPULANKESIMPULAN

� Memperhatikan indikator yang ada maka diprediksi industri properti Indonesia tahun 2009 akan tumbuh cukup signifikan terutama sektor perumahan, lebih khusus sub sektor perumahan bersubsidi.

� Sektor komersial, khususnya pusat belanja akan tumbuh di kota-kota sedang (500.000 – 1.000.000) baik di Jawa maupun di luar Jawa.

21

KESIMPULANKESIMPULAN

� Bila kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing bisa disetujui mendapat kemudahan, maka bisa diharapkan beberapa kota akan mendapat dampak positif yang cukup signifikan, misalnya Jakarta, Bali dan Batam.

22

TERIMA KASIHTERIMA KASIH

23

ersatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI)

ewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)

F. TEGUH SATRIA

Rei-Indonesia Property Industry Prosfect 2009

Business