1.5% 1 Bogor, 23 Oktober 2009 REDD REDD dan dan REDD Plus REDD Plus Dalam Dalam Struktur Struktur Negosiasi Negosiasi Global Global Doddy S. Sukadri Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim ( DNPI) Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen Outline Outline Struktur Negosiasi Global Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ? Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus
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REDD REDD dandanREDD Plus REDD Plus DalamDalamStruktur ...awsassets.wwf.or.id/downloads/dnpi__23okt09_pak_dodi.pdf · Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen
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1 Scientists believe that reducing global CO2e emissions to the 450 ppm level provides a 40-60% chance of preventing global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius.
2 Business as Usual
Perubahan relative
dibanding BAU 1, %29 20
Change relative to
BAU2, %-9 -29
SOURCE: IPCC, McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy, 2009
Sampai 2030 emisi GRK dunia perlu diturunkan untuk
REDD, REDD Plus REDD, REDD Plus dandan AlihAlih GunaGuna LahanLahan (LULUCF)(LULUCF)
SFM
REDD
Conservation ECS
Source: Pedroni (2009) in Murdiyarso (2009)
1.5%
12
Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI
REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen
Outline Outline
Struktur Negosiasi Global
Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?
Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus
-60
-20
20
40
60
-160
-140
-120
-80
-100
200 400 600 800
Reduction potential2
MtCO2e per year
0
-40
2,4002,2002,0000 1,8001,6001,4001,2001,000
REDD Indonesia REDD berpotensi mengurangi emisi
karbon sampai 2.3 Gt per tahun sampai 2030
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
GeothermalREDD from
small holders
High efficiency appliances
Internal combustion engine
improvements in passenger
cars
Switching to LEDs
Water mgmt.
& rewetting
in peatlandsLarge hydro
REDD –
timber
extraction
REDD – intensive
plantations dryland
forestReforestation
1 Societal perspective implies utilizing a 4% discount rate
2. The width of each bar represents the volume of potential reduction. The height of each bar represents the cost to capture each reduction initiative
Societal perspective1, 2030
Including more than 150 levers
from forestry, agriculture,
peatland , transportation,
building and cement industry
1.5%
13
Diduga memberikan kontribusi lebih dari
50 % emisi karbon dunia
(dari proses dekomposisi)
SOURCE: Hooijer et al 2006; Wetlands International; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
100%
Indonesia Neg tropis
lainnya1
Sisanya
di dunia
Emisi karbon dari proses dekomposisi
58 24 18
Luas 5 5 90
• Walaupun luasnya hanya 10% dari lahan gambut di dunia, namun lebih 80% emisi
karbon dunia dari proses dekomposisi terjadi di wilayah tropis;
• Dari jumlah tersebut, lebih dari separuhnya terjadi di Indonesia.
1 Malaysia, Papua New Guinea; Democratic Republik of Congo, Brazil
2 Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, USA
Peat
fire
Decomposition
after drainage
Emisi lahan gambut disebabkan dekomposisi dan kebakaran
lahan yang telah terdegradasi. Pembukaan lahan gambut baru
akan meningkatkan emisi karbon dimasa depan
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
ILLUSTRATIVE
Pembukaanlahan gambutsaat ini
Pembukaanlahan gambutsaat ini
Di masadatang???Di masadatang???
Removal of biomass
above ground
(logging)
Decomposition
after drainage
Peat fire
1.5%
14
Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below EUR 60 per tCO2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Assuming a 4% societal discount rate
6005003002001000
10
0
30
5
15
2020
25
1,200
15
11
7
Potensi biaya pengurangan emisiMtCO2e per year
44
1
1,100400 1,000900800700
6
Reducing deforestation and undertaking A/R could
potentially turn forestry sector to be the carbon sink by 2030
Sumber:: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
REDD – small-
holder agriculture
Marginal land
afforestation
Forest
manage-
ment
Reforest-
ation
REDD –
timber
extraction
Cropland
afforest-
ation
REDD –
Intensive
plantation -
pulpwood
REDD –
Intensive
plantation –
palm oil
Perspektif sosial 2030
Preliminary finding
Pengurangan emisi karbon di Indonesia dapat dilakukan
dengan biaya relatif murahapabila dilakukan di sektor
kehutanan dan lahan gambut
1.5%
15
Possible scenario in forestry sector development
Sumber:: Min. of Forestry – Statistics 2000 and 2007; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
• In a BAU
scenario’ a
constant
deforestation at
2000 to 2005
levels is assumed
• In an ‘abatement
scenario’, a
gradual limitation
of deforestation
and a massive
afforestation/
reforestation
effort will take
place
Chart Title
, 67.500005
, 120.100005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ax
is T
itle
Historical and future scenario of Indonesian forest area‘000 ha