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Management Decision Support and Intelligent Systems Antonius Rachmat C, S.Kom, M.Cs
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Management Decision Support and Intelligent Systems ...

Jan 12, 2017

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Page 1: Management Decision Support and Intelligent Systems ...

Management Decision Support and Intelligent Systemsand Intelligent Systems

Antonius Rachmat C, S.Kom, M.Cs

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Data, informasi, dan pengetahuan

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Piramida Pengetahuan

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Jenis keputusan

• Terstruktur (terprogram)– Dibuat berdasarkan kebiasaan, aturan, prosedur,

tertulis ataupun tidak– Biasanya bersifat rutin dan berulang-ulang– Bisa dibuat dgn metode matematis dan alat bantu – Bisa dibuat dgn metode matematis dan alat bantu

komputer

• Tidak terstruktur (tidak terprogram)– Mengenai masalah khusus, khas, tidak biasa– Karena kebijakan yg ada belum menjawab– Misal: pengalokasian sumber daya– Bisa dibuat dgn teknik heuristik

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4 FASE PEMBUATAN KEPUTUSAN(menurut Herbert A. Simon)

a. INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY – mencari lingkungan kondisi untuk mencari solusi

b. DESIGN ACTIVITY - menemukan, mengembangkan & menganalisis berbagai jenis tindakan pemecahan masalahtindakan pemecahan masalah

c. CHOICE ACTIVITY - memilih jenis tindakan tertentu yang tersedia fase sebelumnya.

d. REVIEW ACTIVITY- memeriksa pilihan yang dibuat

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Information characteristics

Karakteristik Operational Strategic• Akurasi High Low• Detail Detail Agregasi• Time Now Future• Time Now Future• Use Frequent Infrequent• Source Internal External• Scope Sempit Luas• Sifat Kuantitatif Kualitatif

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Decision Process

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Decision Complexity

Chapter 12

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Decision Support Systems

• Computer tool that helps people make better decisions & faster

• Leaves the human in control of decision makingmaking

• Istilah DSS muncul pertama kali tahun 1971oleh G. Anthony Gorry dan Michael S. Scott

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Definitions of a Decision Support System

General definition - a system providing both problem-solving and communications capabilities for semistructured problems– A semistructured decision is one which is partially

programmable, but still requires human judgmentprogrammable, but still requires human judgment

Specific definition - a system that supports a single manager or a relatively small group of managers working as a problem-solving team in the solution of a semistructured problem by providing information or making suggestionsconcerning specific decisions.

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Using DSS

• What-if Analysis– End user makes changes to variables, or

relationships among variables, and observes the resulting changes in the values of other the resulting changes in the values of other variables

• Sensitivity Analysis– Value of only one variable is changed

repeatedly and the resulting changes in other variables are observed

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Using DSS

• Goal-Seeking– Set a target value for a variable and then

repeatedly change other variables until the target value is achievedtarget value is achieved

• Optimization– Goal is to find the optimum value for one or

more target variables given certain constraints – One or more other variables are changed

repeatedly until the best values for the target variables are discovered

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Examples of Situations in which DSSs may be used

• Help medical personnel in a hospital setting to consider various diagnoses and treatment plans,

• Help engineers to analyze, develop and compare solution options,compare solution options,

• Help military planners to generatealternative plans of military maneuvers,

• Help search and rescue workers to prioritize which of many critical activities to attend next.

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Manager + Computer(DSS)

Solution

ComputerSolution

ManagerSolution

The DSS Focuses on Semistructured ProblemsThe DSS Focuses on Semistructured Problems

Solution

Structured Semistructured Unstructured

DEGREE OF PROBLEM STRUCTUREDEGREE OF PROBLEM STRUCTURE

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Analytic and Heuristic Decision Making

Analytic Decision Maker Heuristic Decision Maker

Learns by analyzing Learns by acting

Uses step-by-step procedure

Uses trial and error procedure

Values quantitative information and models

Values experience

Builds mathematical models and algorithms

Relies on common sense

Seeks optimal solution Seeks completely satisfying solution

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SiapkanPerkira-kan

ProposeDecision

Make

Dera

jat P

roble

m S

olv

ing S

upport

Retrieveelemeninformasi

AnalisisSeluruhFile

SiapkanReportdariMultipleFiles

kanKonse-kuensiKeputusan

MakeDecision

Derajat KompleksitasProblem Solving

Kecil Besar

Tipe-tipe DSS menurut STEVEN L. ALTER

Dera

jat P

roble

m S

olv

ing S

upport

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ENAM TIPE DSS menurut STEVEN L. ALTERENAM TIPE DSS menurut STEVEN L. ALTER

Bentuk special report sbg respons terhadap query database, serta laporan berkala (periodic report):

• Tipe 1 DSS: dukungan support paling kecil;– (retrieve) elemen informasi, mis.:

– Query ke database untuk gambaran penjualan dari salah satu marketing regions.

• Tipe 2 DSS: dukungan support sedikit lebih besar;• Tipe 2 DSS: dukungan support sedikit lebih besar;– menganalisis seluruh file, mis.:

– Query ke database utk special report dr data pd file inventory, atau laporan payroll bulanan dr file payroll.

• Tipe 3 DSS: dukungan lebih besar;– menyiapkan report dari berbagai file, mis.:

– Laporan income statement dan analisis penjualan produk berdasarkan pelanggan (customer).

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Tiga tipe DSS terakhir melibatkan penggunaan Tiga tipe DSS terakhir melibatkan penggunaan model matematik.model matematik.

• Tipe 4 DSS: DSS dengan berbagai efek kemungkinan keputusan, yaitu model yang dapat menduga konsekuensi keputusan (estimate decision consequences). Misal:

• Manajer menginput harga pada suatu model harga untuk melihat efeknya terhadap keuntungan bersih (what if)

– Model akan memberikan respons: Apabila harga – Model akan memberikan respons: Apabila harga direndahkan menjadi $25, maka keuntungan bersih akan meningkat sebesar $5,000.

model tidak bisa menetapkan apakah $25 adalah the best price, model hanya memberikan kemungkinan yang akan terjadi bila suatu keputusan dibuat.

• Model analisis resiko: model yang menggunakan dugaan distribusi peluang untuk setiap faktor kunci (sensitivity)

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• Tipe 5 DSS: model yang menawarkan keputusan (propose decision), misal:

• manajer manufacturing memasukkan data tentang pabrik dan peralatan ===> dengan model pemrograman linear akan dihasilkan output layout yang paling efisien. (max-min)

• Tipe 6 DSS: dukungan penuh membuatkan keputusan (make decisions) untuk manajer, misal:

• Pemodelan komputer untuk penentuan diagnosa • Pemodelan komputer untuk penentuan diagnosa apakah suatu kredit diterima atau tidak

• Untuk ini diperlukan kepercayaan dari manajemen terhadap model yang dipakai.

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TUJUAN DSS TUJUAN DSS (Peter G.W. Keen & Scott Morton)(Peter G.W. Keen & Scott Morton)

a. Membantu manajer membuat keputusan untuk menangani masalah semi terstruktur,

b. Mendukung pertimbangan manajer, bukan sebagai pengganti pertimbangan manajer,

c. Meningkatkan efektifitas manajer dalam c. Meningkatkan efektifitas manajer dalam membuat keputusan (bukan efisiensi).

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DSS capabilities

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Structure and Components of DSSs

• Data management subsystem berisi seluruh data dari berbagai resources.

• Model management subsystem berisi model dan building blocks yang dibutuhkan untuk membangun DSS

• User interface berisi seluruh aspek komunikasi antara user dan DSS

• User interface berisi seluruh aspek komunikasi antara user dan DSS

• Users adalah orang yang berhadapan dgn DSS, sebagai penginput masalah ataupun penerima output keputusan

• Knowledge-based subsystems menyediakan pengetahuan dan pakar untuk masalah tertentu

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DSS process & components

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Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS)

• Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS) is a DSS that focuses on an organizational task or activity involving a sequence of operations and decision makers and provides the following:and provides the following:– It affects several organizational units or corporate

problems;– It involves computer-based and (usually)

communications technologies.

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Executive Information (Support) Systems

• Executive information system (EIS) also known as an executive support system (ESS), is a computer-based technology designed specifically for the information needs of top executives and provides for:– Rapid access to timely information;– Direct access to management reports;– Very user friendly and supported by graphics.– Very user friendly and supported by graphics.– Exception reporting – reporting of only the results that deviate

from a set of standards.– Drill down reporting – investigating information in increasing

detail.– Easily connected within online information services and e-mail.– Include analysis support, communications, office automation and

intelligence support.

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DSS -> Business Intelligence

Basic BI components.

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BI Dashboard capabilities

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Dashboard

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Definisi Sistem Cerdas

• Sistem Cerdas = bidang ilmu komputer yang meneliti dan mempelajari bagaimana agar komputer dapat bertindak dan mengerjakan pekerjaan seperti yang mengerjakan pekerjaan seperti yang dilakukan oleh manusia.

• Awalnya komputer hanya mesin hitung• Intinya pada bagaimana komputer bisa

“menalar”

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Intelligence Systems processes

� Knowledge acquisition (from experts or other sources)

� Knowledge representation (organized as rules or frames in the computer)rules or frames in the computer)

� Knowledge inferencing is performed in a component called the inference engine of the ES and results in the recommendation.

� Knowledge transfer to the user (the expert’s knowledge has been transferred to users).

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Bagian Utama Sistem Cerdas

• Basis Pengetahuan (Knowledge Based)– Berisi fakta, teori, pemikiran, dan hubungannya

• Motor Inferensi (Inference Engine)– Kemampuan menalar dan menarik kesimpulan– Kemampuan menalar dan menarik kesimpulan

Knowledge base

Inference mechanism

Computer

Inputs Outputs

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AI vs Non AI

• AI lebih permanen, non AI mudah berubah seturut waktu

• AI mudah diduplikasikan dan disebarkan• AI lebih murah dari non AI• AI lebih murah dari non AI• AI lebih konsisten dan mudah didokumentasi• AI tidak kreatif• AI tidak dapat menggunakan pengalaman

secara langsung• AI terbatas

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Metode Penalaran

• Forward reasoning (data driven): dimulai dari keadaan awal (dari fakta), kemudian menuju ke arah kesimpulan / tujuan

• Backward reasoning (goal driven): • Backward reasoning (goal driven): dimulai dari tujuan / hipotesa baru dicocokkan dengan keadaan awal / fakta-fakta

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Sistem Pakar

• Suatu program AI yang berisi basis pengetahuan dan mesin inferensi

• Seperti layaknya seorang pakar• Berfungsi sebagai konsultan• Berfungsi sebagai konsultan• Tidak untuk menggantikan kemampuan seorang

pakar• Berisi pengetahuan dari para pakar• Dapat digunakan untuk menjawab pertanyaan,

memecahkan masalah dan membuat keputusan

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Perbedaan ES dan Pakar

• Time:– P:hari kerja; ES: tiap saat

• Geografis:– P:lokal/tertentu; ES: dimana saja

• Keamanan:• Keamanan:– P: tdk tergantikan; ES: dapat diganti

• Dapat habis:– P: ya; ES: tidak

• Performa dan kecepatan:– P: variabel; ES: konstan

• Biaya:– P: tinggi; ES: terjangkau

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Konsep Dasar ES

• Komponen Sistem Pakar:– Pengetahuan Pakar: pengetahuan pada suatu

bidang tertentu• Fakta-fakta, teori, prosedur, aturan, strategi, meta knowledge

– Pakar– Pengalihan Pengetahuan:– Pengalihan Pengetahuan:

• Tambahan pengetahuan, representasi pengetahuan, inferensi pengetahuan, pengalihan pengetahuan ke user.

– Inferensi: kemampuan menalar– Aturan: dalam bentuk aturan IF-THEN– Fasilitas Penjelasan: penejelasan bagaimana

keputusan dibuat– Kemampuan rekomendasi

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User

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Penjelasan• Knowledge Acusition: penambahan pengetahuan, mengkonstruksi

atau memperluas pengetahuan• Knowledge Base: berisi pengetahuan• Inference Engine: program yang berisi metodologi yang digunakan

untuk melakukan penalaran terhadap informasi dalam basis pengetahuan dan blackboard:– Interpreter: mengeksekusi item-item agenda yang terpilih menggunakan – Interpreter: mengeksekusi item-item agenda yang terpilih menggunakan

aturan– Scheduler: mengkontrol agenda– Consistency Enforcer: memelihara kekonsistenan dalam

merepresentasikan solusi yang bersifat darurat• Blackboard: area kerja dalam memori yang digunakan dalam

kejadian yang sedang berlangsung termasuk keputusan sementara– Plan: bagaimana menghadapi masalah– Agenda: aksi aksi potensial yang sedang menunggu untuk dieksekusi– Solution: calon aksi yang akan dibangkitkan

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Penjelasan

• Interface: sebagai media komunikasi antara user dan program

• Explanation Facility: melacak respon dan memberi penjelasan ttg kelakuan sistem pakar– Mengapa suatu pertanyaan ditanyakan?– Mengapa suatu pertanyaan ditanyakan?– Bagaimana konklusi dicapai?– Mengapa ada alternatif yang dibatalkan?– Rencana apa yang dilakukan mendapatkan solusi?

• Knowledge refinement: mengevaluasi kinerja sistem pakar, apakah pengetahuan tersebut masi cocok untuk digunakan pada masa yang akan datang?

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Benefits of Expert Systems

• Memungkinkan orang awam dapat mengerjakan pekerjaan para ahli

• Bisa melakukan proses berulang secara otomatis• Menyimpan pengetahuan dan keahlian pakar• Meningkatkan output dan produktifitas• Melestarikan keahlian pakar• Melestarikan keahlian pakar• Dapat beroperasi pada lingkungan berbahaya• Dapat meningkatkan kemampuan sistem komputer• Dapat bekerja dengan informasi yang tidak lengkap• Sebagai media pelengkap dalam pelatihan• Menghemat waktu pengambilan keputusan

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Natural Language Processing & Voice Technologies

• Natural language processing (NLP): Communicating with a computer in English or whatever language you may speak.

• Natural language understanding/speech (voice) recognition: The ability of a computer to comprehend instructions given in ordinary language, via the keyboard instructions given in ordinary language, via the keyboard or by voice.

• Natural language generation/voice synthesis:Technology that enables computers to produce ordinary language, by “voice” or on the screen, so that people can understand computers more easily.

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Neural Networks

• Neural networks are a system of programs and data structures that approximates the operation of the human brain.

• Neural networks are particularly good at • Neural networks are particularly good at recognizing subtle, hidden, and newly emerging patterns within complex data as well as interpreting incomplete inputs.

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• Knowledge Management