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Lampiran 2 Layout Pabrik PT. Harapan Widyatama Pertiwi Ruang Crasher (pipa besar) W O R K S H O P Genzet Compresor Mixer Maintenance Ruang Crasher (untuk pipa kecil) Warehouse Bahan Baku Resin Bahan Baku HDPE Gedung Lama (sedang direhabilitasi) Stabilizer Tool Cribs P R O N T 4 5 E X C 4 5 C M T 4 5 F A N G L I E X C 9 2 B a t e n fi e l d E X C 5 8 C M T 5 8 C M T 6 8 C M T M 6 8 ` C M T S 6 8 C M S 4 5 A L P H A 6 0 P R O T O N 6 0 C M S 7 5 SHEET LINE EXC 80 PLANT PVC T W I S I C P R O T O N 1 2 0 E X C 8 0
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Lampiran 2 Layout Pabrik PT. Harapan Widyatama Pertiwithesis.binus.ac.id/asli/lampiran/2006-2-01106-ti-lampiran.pdf · 85 Lampiran 2 Layout Pabrik PT. Harapan Widyatama Pertiwi Ruang

Mar 27, 2019

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Page 1: Lampiran 2 Layout Pabrik PT. Harapan Widyatama Pertiwithesis.binus.ac.id/asli/lampiran/2006-2-01106-ti-lampiran.pdf · 85 Lampiran 2 Layout Pabrik PT. Harapan Widyatama Pertiwi Ruang

85

Lampiran 2

Layout Pabrik PT. Harapan Widyatama Pertiwi

RuangCrasher

(pipabesar)

WORKSHOP

GenzetCompresorMixer

Maintenance Ruang Crasher(untuk pipa kecil)

War

ehou

se

Bah

an B

aku

Resi

n

Bahan BakuHDPE

Gedung Lama(sedang direhabilitasi)

Stabilizer ToolCribs

PRONT45

EXC45

CMT45

FANGLI

EXC92

Batenfield

EXC58

CMT58

CMT68

CMTM68`

CMTS68

CMS45

ALPHA60

PROTON60

CMS75

SHEETLINE

EXC 80PLANT

PVC

TWISIC

PROTON120

EXC80

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Lampiran 3

Peta Proses Operasi Pipa SNI S12,5 63

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87

Lampiran 4

Peta Proses Operasi Pipa PVC Abu AW 1

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Lampiran 5

Pola Data Permintaan Pipa PVC SNI S12,5 63

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435Periode

Bat

ang

Lampiran 6

Pola Data Permintaan Pipa PVC Abu AW 1

0

1000

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7000

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9000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435Periode

Bat

ang

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Lampiran 7

Metode Peramalan Yang Digunakan

Metode Peramalan Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing

α = 0.1, γ = 0.2 α = 0.2, γ = 0.3 α = 0.3, γ = 0.4 α = 0.4, γ = 0.5 α = 0.5, γ = 0.6 α = 0.6, γ = 0.7

2 parameter dari Holt

α = 0.7, γ = 0.8 Triple Exponential Smoothing

α = 0.1, β = 0.2, γ = 0.3 α = 0.2, β = 0.3, γ = 0.4 α = 0.3, β = 0.4, γ = 0.5 α = 0.4, β = 0.5, γ = 0.6 α = 0.5, β = 0.6, γ = 0.7 α = 0.6, β = 0.7, γ = 0.8

3 parameter dari Winters

α = 0.7, β = 0.8, γ = 0.9 Multiplicative Dekomposisi Additive Dekomposisi Trend Regresi Linear

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.1 Gamma (trend) 0.2 Accuracy Measures MAPE 45 MAD 1299 MSD 2704529 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 3057.71 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 3045.48 3033.75 117.25 3 4162 3137.68 3023.87 1138.13 4 3254 3150.35 3138.83 115.17 5 2524 3090.83 3153.81 -629.81 6 4515 3225.02 3081.69 1433.31 7 2988 3218.89 3244.55 -256.55 8 4544 3364.36 3233.29 1310.71 9 6462 3710.67 3404.97 3057.03 10 5567 3987.88 3812.42 1754.58 11 3461 4058.35 4124.72 -663.72 12 4487 4212.43 4181.92 305.08 13 2750 4182.89 4342.10 -1592.10 14 1450 3997.64 4280.72 -2830.72 15 1806 3815.57 4038.86 -2232.86 16 2484 3679.31 3812.13 -1328.13 17 1715 3455.88 3649.31 -1934.31 18 2178 3266.27 3387.19 -1209.19 19 2802 3136.25 3173.39 -371.39 20 4562 3188.55 3035.95 1526.05 21 3325 3139.39 3118.77 206.23 22 1495 2915.86 3073.73 -1578.73 23 1907 2727.47 2818.63 -911.63 24 2165 2567.30 2612.00 -447.00 25 2293 2427.90 2442.89 -149.89 26 2940 2364.45 2300.50 639.50 27 5295 2554.35 2249.84 3045.16 28 3273 2577.88 2500.64 772.36 29 1602 2445.85 2539.62 -937.62 30 2528 2402.76 2388.84 139.16 31 4556 2569.27 2348.52 2207.48 32 5847 2887.97 2559.19 3287.81 33 6965 3345.78 2943.64 4021.36 34 3821 3515.79 3481.88 339.12 35 2240 3516.81 3658.67 -1418.67 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3631.32 37 3745.83 38 3860.34

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.2 Gamma (trend) 0.3 Accuracy Measures MAPE 47 MAD 1357 MSD 2759127 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 2901.85 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 2882.64 2815.55 335.45 3 4162 3085.58 2816.47 1345.53 4 3254 3130.91 3100.14 153.86 5 2524 3028.56 3154.71 -630.71 6 4515 3314.61 3014.52 1500.48 7 2988 3310.07 3390.59 -402.59 8 4544 3598.32 3361.90 1182.10 9 6462 4269.26 3721.07 2740.93 10 5567 4758.57 4556.46 1010.54 11 3461 4777.33 5106.41 -1645.41 12 4487 4918.55 5026.44 -539.44 13 2750 4658.24 5135.30 -2385.30 14 1450 4075.50 4731.87 -3281.87 15 1806 3522.97 3952.21 -2146.21 16 2484 3113.53 3270.92 -786.92 17 1715 2594.41 2814.26 -1099.26 18 2178 2218.95 2229.18 -51.18 19 2802 2040.92 1850.65 951.35 20 4562 2296.16 1729.70 2832.30 21 3325 2388.91 2154.88 1170.12 22 1495 2153.27 2317.84 -822.84 23 1907 2007.66 2032.83 -125.83 24 2165 1936.74 1879.67 285.33 25 2293 1919.29 1825.87 467.13 26 2940 2057.16 1836.45 1103.55 27 5295 2691.42 2040.53 3254.47 28 3273 2950.65 2870.06 402.94 29 1602 2843.17 3153.46 -1551.46 30 2528 2867.92 2952.90 -424.90 31 4556 3272.92 2952.15 1603.85 32 5847 3932.11 3453.38 2393.62 33 6965 4797.95 4256.19 2708.81 34 3821 4991.85 5284.56 -1463.56 35 2240 4760.51 5390.64 -3150.64 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4970.27 37 5180.03 38 5389.79

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.3 Gamma (trend) 0.4 Accuracy Measures MAPE 50 MAD 1416 MSD 2910741 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 2745.99 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 2741.63 2566.18 584.82 3 4162 3091.00 2632.00 1530.00 4 3254 3191.68 3164.97 89.03 5 2524 3050.63 3276.33 -752.33 6 4515 3486.00 3045.00 1470.00 7 2988 3456.14 3656.77 -668.77 8 4544 3845.86 3546.66 997.34 9 6462 4777.84 4056.06 2405.94 10 5567 5363.83 5276.76 290.24 11 3461 5166.60 5897.57 -2436.57 12 4487 5131.67 5407.95 -920.95 13 2750 4508.75 5262.51 -2512.51 14 1450 3471.66 4338.09 -2888.09 15 1806 2609.90 2954.43 -1148.43 16 2484 2113.60 1954.86 529.14 17 1715 1579.94 1522.05 192.95 18 2178 1361.48 1011.54 1166.46 19 2802 1493.74 933.06 1868.94 20 4562 2271.32 1289.60 3272.40 21 3325 2719.40 2459.86 865.14 22 1495 2556.73 3011.76 -1516.76 23 1907 2439.06 2667.08 -760.08 24 2165 2370.24 2458.19 -293.19 25 2293 2335.83 2354.19 -61.19 26 2940 2500.71 2312.45 627.55 27 5295 3375.34 2552.63 2742.37 28 3273 3611.34 3756.34 -483.34 29 1602 3234.64 3934.34 -2332.34 30 2528 3052.83 3277.76 -749.76 31 4556 3470.99 3005.98 1550.02 32 5847 4281.20 3610.14 2236.86 33 6965 5371.64 4688.77 2276.23 34 3821 5382.95 6052.36 -2231.36 35 2240 4729.14 5795.91 -3555.91 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4715.39 37 4701.64 38 4687.89

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.4 Gamma (trend) 0.5 Accuracy Measures MAPE 53 MAD 1495 MSD 3135473 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 2590.14 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 2631.79 2285.64 865.36 3 4162 3165.02 2500.36 1661.64 4 3254 3321.15 3365.92 -111.92 5 2524 3109.40 3499.67 -975.67 6 4515 3661.67 3092.79 1422.21 7 2988 3552.90 3929.50 -941.50 8 4544 3997.06 3632.43 911.57 9 6462 5140.14 4258.90 2203.10 10 5567 5732.36 5842.60 -275.60 11 3461 5212.22 6379.70 -2918.70 12 4487 4960.29 5275.82 -788.82 13 2750 4019.68 4866.13 -2116.13 14 1450 2681.37 3502.29 -2052.29 15 1806 1774.52 1753.53 52.47 16 2484 1507.90 857.16 1626.84 17 1715 1235.55 915.91 799.09 18 2178 1353.23 803.38 1374.62 19 2802 1838.39 1195.98 1606.02 20 4562 3026.21 2002.35 2559.65 21 3325 3551.26 3702.10 -377.10 22 1495 3089.04 4151.73 -2656.73 23 1907 2657.70 3158.16 -1251.16 24 2165 2351.95 2476.59 -311.59 25 2293 2182.32 2108.53 184.47 26 2940 2361.47 1975.78 964.22 27 5295 3526.67 2347.78 2947.22 28 3273 3770.65 4102.42 -829.42 29 1602 3149.11 4180.52 -2578.52 30 2528 2837.17 3043.28 -515.28 31 4556 3399.37 2628.28 1927.72 32 5847 4484.41 3576.02 2270.98 33 6965 5855.16 5115.26 1849.74 34 3821 5641.97 6855.95 -3034.95 35 2240 4517.47 6035.78 -3795.78 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4152.12 37 3786.77 38 3421.42

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.5 Gamma (trend) 0.6 Accuracy Measures MAPE 56 MAD 1561 MSD 3317461 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 2434.28 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 2562.46 1973.93 1177.07 3 4162 3308.62 2455.23 1706.77 4 3254 3483.71 3713.42 -459.42 5 2524 3137.34 3750.68 -1226.68 6 4515 3775.66 3036.31 1478.69 7 2988 3553.12 4118.23 -1130.23 8 4544 4050.31 3556.62 987.38 9 6462 5406.02 4350.03 2111.97 10 5567 5953.16 6339.33 -772.33 11 3461 5057.89 6654.78 -3193.78 12 4487 4644.18 4801.37 -314.37 13 2750 3521.68 4293.35 -1543.35 14 1450 2078.92 2707.84 -1257.84 15 1806 1346.87 887.73 918.27 16 2484 1457.58 431.16 2052.84 17 1715 1436.36 1157.72 557.28 18 2178 1740.84 1303.69 874.31 19 2802 2336.23 1870.47 931.53 20 4562 3653.66 2745.31 1816.69 21 3325 3966.37 4607.74 -1282.74 22 1495 3015.32 4535.64 -3040.64 23 1907 2289.70 2672.39 -765.39 24 2165 1941.08 1717.15 447.85 25 2293 1897.94 1502.89 790.11 26 2940 2318.39 1696.79 1243.21 27 5295 3892.60 2490.20 2804.80 28 3273 4089.42 4905.85 -1632.85 29 1602 3107.41 4612.82 -3010.82 30 2528 2627.78 2727.56 -199.56 31 4556 3372.03 2188.06 2367.94 32 5847 4744.85 3642.69 2204.31 33 6965 6320.90 5676.80 1288.20 34 3821 5730.16 7639.32 -3818.32 35 2240 4071.54 5903.08 -3663.08 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3145.54 37 2219.53 38 1293.53

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.6 Gamma (trend) 0.7 Accuracy Measures MAPE 55 MAD 1568 MSD 3446720 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 2278.42 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 2543.02 1631.05 1519.95 3 4162 3510.81 2534.02 1627.98 4 3254 3626.62 4185.56 -931.56 5 2524 3078.45 3910.12 -1386.12 6 4515 3820.91 2779.78 1735.22 7 2988 3493.21 4251.03 -1263.03 8 4544 4083.54 3392.86 1151.14 9 6462 5663.87 4466.67 1995.33 10 5567 6094.21 6885.03 -1318.03 11 3461 4781.32 6761.80 -3300.80 12 4487 4317.23 4062.57 424.43 13 2750 3160.70 3776.74 -1026.74 14 1450 1745.59 2188.98 -738.98 15 1806 1269.00 463.50 1342.50 16 2484 1710.70 550.76 1933.24 17 1715 1750.77 1804.42 -89.42 18 2178 2029.57 1806.93 371.07 19 2802 2577.83 2241.58 560.42 20 4562 3947.29 3025.22 1536.78 21 3325 4011.05 5040.12 -1715.12 22 1495 2650.41 4383.53 -2888.53 23 1907 1868.08 1809.71 97.29 24 2165 1726.30 1068.25 1096.75 25 2293 1930.64 1387.10 905.90 26 2940 2552.77 1971.92 968.08 27 5295 4377.26 3000.64 2294.36 28 3273 4279.30 5788.76 -2515.76 29 1602 2814.88 4634.19 -3032.19 30 2528 2275.30 1896.24 631.76 31 4556 3382.40 1622.00 2934.00 32 5847 5092.75 3961.38 1885.62 33 6965 6764.48 6463.70 501.30 34 3821 5630.99 8345.97 -4524.97 35 2240 3468.80 5311.99 -3071.99 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 1859.56 37 250.33 38 -1358.90

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.7 Gamma (trend) 0.8 Accuracy Measures MAPE 56 MAD 1618 MSD 3486549 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 2122.57 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 2582.80 1256.99 1894.01 3 4162 3746.76 2777.86 1384.14 4 3254 3692.88 4716.94 -1462.94 5 2524 2919.95 3843.82 -1319.82 6 4515 3860.03 2331.78 2183.22 7 2988 3439.94 4494.47 -1506.47 8 4544 4150.03 3230.76 1313.24 9 6462 5926.28 4676.26 1785.74 10 5567 6132.66 7452.52 -1885.52 11 3461 4403.60 6603.01 -3142.01 12 4487 4075.23 3114.43 1372.57 13 2750 2991.41 3554.70 -804.70 14 1450 1621.07 2020.25 -570.25 15 1806 1363.37 330.57 1475.43 16 2484 2008.53 899.11 1584.89 17 1715 1930.04 2431.81 -716.81 18 2178 2110.17 1951.91 226.09 19 2802 2638.99 2258.65 543.35 20 4562 4120.92 3091.75 1470.25 21 3325 3946.61 5397.02 -2072.02 22 1495 2265.21 4062.37 -2567.37 23 1907 1617.87 943.25 963.75 24 2165 1766.18 835.61 1329.39 25 2293 2123.61 1728.38 564.62 26 2940 2778.60 2402.00 538.00 27 5295 4713.98 3358.26 1936.74 28 3273 4204.56 6378.22 -3105.22 29 1602 2360.36 4129.88 -2527.88 30 2528 2030.62 870.07 1657.93 31 4556 3629.83 1468.77 3087.23 32 5847 5531.95 4796.83 1050.17 33 6965 7061.61 7287.04 -322.04 34 3821 5265.61 8636.36 -4815.36 35 2240 2811.13 4143.76 -1903.76 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 623.17 37 -1564.79 38 -3752.74

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.1 Gamma (trend) 0.2 Delta (seasonal) 0.3 Accuracy Measures MAPE 64 MAD 1732 MSD 4688692 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2121.97 -466.97 2 3151 1959.79 2483.80 667.20 3 4162 2693.39 3260.84 901.16 4 3254 3951.22 4641.57 -1387.57 5 2524 3596.63 4125.89 -1601.89 6 4515 4268.89 4804.12 -289.12 7 2988 5052.02 5612.16 -2624.16 8 4544 5391.71 5903.35 -1359.35 9 6462 4476.79 4852.83 1609.17 10 5567 5958.71 6443.88 -876.88 11 3461 5930.99 6367.33 -2906.33 12 4487 6610.07 7021.49 -2534.49 13 2750 6096.73 6421.68 -3671.68 14 1450 6375.15 6639.99 -5189.99 15 1806 5166.41 5302.33 -3496.33 16 2484 5560.78 5634.87 -3150.87 17 1715 4458.24 4467.53 -2752.53 18 2178 4070.16 4025.72 -1847.72 19 2802 3403.10 3330.99 -528.99 20 4562 3820.11 3723.74 838.26 21 3325 3125.01 3059.68 265.32 22 1495 3168.90 3107.27 -1612.27 23 1907 2869.14 2777.71 -870.71 24 2165 3473.24 3332.74 -1167.74 25 2293 2549.20 2419.32 -126.32 26 2940 2058.25 1945.01 994.99 27 5295 2132.23 2034.89 3260.11 28 3273 3011.97 2970.97 302.03 29 1602 2600.14 2569.85 -967.85 30 2528 2427.33 2378.60 149.40 31 4556 3028.92 2971.04 1584.96 32 5847 2987.29 2962.30 2884.70 33 6965 2452.16 2476.82 4488.18 34 3821 3264.92 3392.62 428.38 35 2240 4859.99 5052.77 -2812.77 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 5108.83 37 4518.87 38 3785.71

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.2 Gamma (trend) 0.3 Delta (seasonal) 0.4 Accuracy Measures MAPE 54 MAD 1535 MSD 3646061 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2121.97 -466.97 2 3151 1915.69 2422.06 728.94 3 4162 2711.69 3292.61 869.39 4 3254 4087.44 4833.93 -1579.93 5 2524 3559.12 4072.51 -1548.51 6 4515 4184.45 4652.04 -137.04 7 2988 4836.31 5316.70 -2328.70 8 4544 4702.44 5032.68 -488.68 9 6462 3801.01 4032.79 2429.21 10 5567 5732.19 6211.11 -644.11 11 3461 5435.12 5828.55 -2367.55 12 4487 5938.89 6217.68 -1730.68 13 2750 5473.85 5636.95 -2886.95 14 1450 5290.71 5280.13 -3830.13 15 1806 3584.57 3393.68 -1587.68 16 2484 3598.92 3264.13 -780.13 17 1715 2615.19 2294.12 -579.12 18 2178 2030.02 1698.42 479.58 19 2802 1632.87 1357.29 1444.71 20 4562 2121.73 1878.28 2683.72 21 3325 2021.52 1952.52 1372.48 22 1495 2462.42 2477.18 -982.18 23 1907 2448.91 2401.49 -494.49 24 2165 3140.93 3035.76 -870.76 25 2293 2115.46 1999.10 293.90 26 2940 1638.67 1560.05 1379.95 27 5295 2129.38 2134.23 3160.77 28 3273 3657.48 3914.62 -641.62 29 1602 3242.72 3429.97 -1827.97 30 2528 2894.72 2968.00 -440.00 31 4556 3677.00 3736.86 819.14 32 5847 3571.64 3671.45 2175.55 33 6965 3008.81 3177.57 3787.43 34 3821 4369.56 4809.30 -988.30 35 2240 6606.50 7151.51 -4911.51 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 6441.61 37 5484.27 38 4499.32

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.3 Gamma (trend) 0.4 Delta (seasonal) 0.5 Accuracy Measures MAPE 58 MAD 1650 MSD 4151290 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2121.97 -466.97 2 3151 1871.59 2351.50 799.50 3 4162 2736.51 3344.62 817.38 4 3254 4232.88 5065.58 -1811.58 5 2524 3528.54 4008.66 -1484.66 6 4515 4063.44 4407.78 107.22 7 2988 4568.94 4936.52 -1948.52 8 4544 4086.38 4211.98 332.02 9 6462 3342.29 3470.54 2991.46 10 5567 5880.82 6536.79 -969.79 11 3461 5374.68 5839.01 -2378.01 12 4487 5860.98 6065.63 -1578.63 13 2750 5232.93 5247.17 -2497.17 14 1450 4619.49 4326.36 -2876.36 15 1806 2639.87 2153.36 -347.36 16 2484 2520.99 1871.17 612.83 17 1715 1719.25 1237.13 477.87 18 2178 1248.21 864.13 1313.87 19 2802 1271.88 1043.02 1758.98 20 4562 2268.68 2243.01 2318.99 21 3325 2495.91 2710.45 614.55 22 1495 3187.77 3505.23 -2010.23 23 1907 2990.40 3068.96 -1161.96 24 2165 3602.44 3521.81 -1356.81 25 2293 2226.95 2052.89 240.11 26 2940 1650.07 1537.29 1402.71 27 5295 2265.16 2329.42 2965.58 28 3273 4248.00 4802.41 -1529.41 29 1602 3809.06 4134.29 -2532.29 30 2528 3152.83 3172.79 -644.79 31 4556 3644.17 3573.94 982.06 32 5847 3384.60 3426.26 2420.74 33 6965 3062.49 3307.46 3657.54 34 3821 5158.30 5959.17 -2138.17 35 2240 7662.65 8446.95 -6206.95 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 6408.73 37 5096.61 38 3997.26

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.4 Gamma (trend) 0.5 Delta (seasonal) 0.6 Accuracy Measures MAPE 63 MAD 1801 MSD 4965898 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2121.97 -466.97 2 3151 1827.50 2272.13 878.87 3 4162 2770.65 3425.81 736.19 4 3254 4386.70 5332.83 -2078.83 5 2524 3495.45 3907.31 -1383.31 6 4515 3886.96 4043.64 471.36 7 2988 4272.42 4525.75 -1537.75 8 4544 3588.86 3539.10 1004.90 9 6462 3125.67 3245.61 3216.39 10 5567 6415.52 7495.89 -1928.89 11 3461 5602.68 6181.41 -2720.41 12 4487 5944.73 5985.17 -1498.17 13 2750 4912.02 4675.63 -1925.63 14 1450 3948.58 3320.19 -1870.19 15 1806 1930.33 1178.03 627.97 16 2484 1858.45 1043.52 1440.48 17 1715 1350.20 911.02 803.98 18 2178 1118.59 865.97 1312.03 19 2802 1637.48 1649.00 1153.00 20 4562 3127.73 3486.59 1075.41 21 3325 3053.93 3501.44 -176.44 22 1495 3377.75 3783.59 -2288.59 23 1907 3016.66 2962.10 -1055.10 24 2165 3457.00 3095.54 -930.54 25 2293 1896.62 1515.28 777.72 26 2940 1305.76 1144.32 1795.68 27 5295 2337.56 2585.68 2709.32 28 3273 5149.81 6258.51 -2985.51 29 1602 4638.18 5106.73 -3504.73 30 2528 3093.79 2899.72 -371.72 31 4556 3244.28 2927.75 1628.25 32 5847 3126.05 3134.01 2712.99 33 6965 3234.71 3656.81 3308.19 34 3821 5999.61 7305.20 -3484.20 35 2240 8528.05 9406.24 -7166.24 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 5531.32 37 3871.29 38 2662.04

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.5 Gamma (trend) 0.6 Delta (seasonal) 0.7 Accuracy Measures MAPE 63 MAD 1842 MSD 5861254 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2121.97 -466.97 2 3151 1783.40 2183.93 967.07 3 4162 2816.89 3546.23 615.77 4 3254 4544.51 5622.32 -2368.32 5 2524 3447.65 3732.99 -1208.99 6 4515 3644.72 3554.60 960.40 7 2988 3992.47 4188.39 -1200.39 8 4544 3258.53 3109.42 1434.58 9 6462 3160.96 3393.29 3068.71 10 5567 7191.73 8874.41 -3307.41 11 3461 5823.23 6380.06 -2919.06 12 4487 5725.10 5354.07 -867.07 13 2750 4376.20 3814.87 -1064.87 14 1450 3302.72 2416.48 -966.48 15 1806 1471.23 576.14 1229.86 16 2484 1641.10 916.17 1567.83 17 1715 1428.43 1214.53 500.47 18 2178 1371.68 1311.98 866.02 19 2802 2191.32 2442.60 359.40 20 4562 3510.59 3991.33 570.67 21 3325 3041.35 3504.98 -179.98 22 1495 3352.56 3754.70 -2259.70 23 1907 2943.12 2633.92 -726.92 24 2165 3035.89 2330.86 -165.86 25 2293 1499.11 995.75 1297.25 26 2940 1149.10 1069.30 1870.70 27 5295 2856.56 3542.56 1752.44 28 3273 6482.28 8259.87 -4986.87 29 1602 5037.46 5283.39 -3681.39 30 2528 2500.97 1877.33 650.67 31 4556 2694.38 2170.29 2385.71 32 5847 3021.00 3193.13 2653.87 33 6965 3543.30 4302.34 2662.66 34 3821 7216.76 9212.37 -5391.37 35 2240 9018.19 9541.56 -7301.56 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3663.96 37 1680.74 38 456.64

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.6 Gamma (trend) 0.7 Delta (seasonal) 0.8 Accuracy Measures MAPE 57 MAD 1714 MSD 5673930 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2122.0 -466.97 2 3151 1739.30 2086.9 1064.09 3 4162 2878.03 3717.1 444.93 4 3254 4697.69 5907.4 -2653.37 5 2524 3372.11 3446.5 -922.55 6 4515 3344.74 2982.8 1532.16 7 2988 3793.96 4067.8 -1079.76 8 4544 3127.32 2963.0 1581.00 9 6462 3417.02 3853.5 2608.46 10 5567 7853.21 10073.6 -4506.63 11 3461 5722.42 5976.8 -2515.82 12 4487 5132.01 4210.4 276.59 13 2750 3906.66 3187.7 -437.67 14 1450 2954.60 2042.7 -592.68 15 1806 1335.18 416.5 1389.54 16 2484 1787.34 1308.2 1175.76 17 1715 1677.57 1689.8 25.16 18 2178 1605.42 1626.9 551.09 19 2802 2366.29 2672.1 129.94 20 4562 3441.99 3893.0 669.00 21 3325 3028.61 3544.8 -219.85 22 1495 3486.77 3919.8 -2424.83 23 1907 2774.69 2115.8 -208.77 24 2165 2576.60 1610.2 554.84 25 2293 1278.37 795.8 1497.15 26 2940 1210.91 1315.5 1624.53 27 5295 3636.08 4885.4 409.64 28 3273 7500.63 9578.3 -6305.31 29 1602 4481.39 4040.2 -2438.18 30 2528 1762.00 760.3 1767.74 31 4556 2416.37 2072.3 2483.71 32 5847 3309.92 3959.4 1887.57 33 6965 4212.15 5405.2 1559.77 34 3821 8148.89 10524.0 -6702.97 35 2240 8052.08 7507.0 -5267.00 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 1350.72 37 -791.47 38 -2123.87

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.7 Gamma (trend) 0.8 Delta (seasonal) 0.9 Accuracy Measures MAPE 50 MAD 1503 MSD 4144248 Time demand Smooth Predict Error 1 1655 1557.74 2122.0 -466.97 2 3151 1695.20 1981.1 1169.92 3 4162 2956.87 3950.6 211.38 4 3254 4832.77 6144.1 -2890.10 5 2524 3258.45 3015.6 -491.61 6 4515 3019.51 2433.9 2081.13 7 2988 3743.50 4301.4 -1313.36 8 4544 3188.33 3020.9 1523.12 9 6462 3788.36 4423.8 2038.24 10 5567 7963.42 10381.9 -4814.91 11 3461 5276.82 5067.7 -1606.71 12 4487 4570.45 3285.1 1201.87 13 2750 3802.08 3237.9 -487.93 14 1450 2935.31 2086.7 -636.67 15 1806 1349.32 358.4 1447.64 16 2484 1927.03 1673.8 810.24 17 1715 1827.17 1990.6 -275.62 18 2178 1708.73 1717.4 460.62 19 2802 2407.35 2722.0 80.01 20 4562 3333.70 3765.0 796.95 21 3325 3078.32 3703.3 -378.29 22 1495 3617.34 4052.0 -2556.96 23 1907 2535.82 1417.9 489.14 24 2165 2200.41 1145.3 1019.69 25 2293 1223.62 905.0 1387.99 26 2940 1413.69 1759.2 1180.79 27 5295 4484.93 6231.1 -936.13 28 3273 7443.79 9075.1 -5802.13 29 1602 3448.21 2335.5 -733.51 30 2528 1285.18 210.6 2317.40 31 4556 2701.69 3030.7 1525.33 32 5847 3940.41 5078.0 769.04 33 6965 5007.50 6405.7 559.28 34 3821 7215.44 9032.2 -5211.16 35 2240 6511.61 5179.5 -2939.47 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 130.09 37 -2257.12 38 -3550.55

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Decomposition Data demand Length 35 Multiplicative Model Fitted Trend Equation: Yt = 3242.05 + 6.09240*t Seasonal Indices Period Index 1 0.96249 2 0.90899 3 0.98078 4 1.14773 Accuracy Measures MAPE 41 MAD 1166 MSD 2030368 Time demand Trend Seasonal Detrend Deseason Predict Error 1 1655 3248.14 0.96249 0.50952 1719.50 3126.31 -1471.31 2 3151 3254.23 0.90899 0.96828 3466.47 2958.08 192.92 3 4162 3260.33 0.98078 1.27656 4243.55 3197.67 964.33 4 3254 3266.42 1.14773 0.99620 2835.15 3748.98 -494.98 5 2524 3272.51 0.96249 0.77127 2622.36 3149.76 -625.76 6 4515 3278.60 0.90899 1.37711 4967.03 2980.23 1534.77 7 2988 3284.70 0.98078 0.90967 3046.55 3221.57 -233.57 8 4544 3290.79 1.14773 1.38082 3959.11 3776.95 767.05 9 6462 3296.88 0.96249 1.96003 6713.83 3173.22 3288.78 10 5567 3302.97 0.90899 1.68545 6124.35 3002.38 2564.62 11 3461 3309.07 0.98078 1.04591 3528.82 3245.47 215.53 12 4487 3315.16 1.14773 1.35348 3909.45 3804.91 682.09 13 2750 3321.25 0.96249 0.82800 2857.17 3196.67 -446.67 14 1450 3327.34 0.90899 0.43578 1595.17 3024.54 -1574.54 15 1806 3333.43 0.98078 0.54178 1841.39 3269.37 -1463.37 16 2484 3339.53 1.14773 0.74382 2164.27 3832.88 -1348.88 17 1715 3345.62 0.96249 0.51261 1781.84 3220.13 -1505.13 18 2178 3351.71 0.90899 0.64982 2396.05 3046.69 -868.69 19 2802 3357.80 0.98078 0.83447 2856.90 3293.27 -491.27 20 4562 3363.90 1.14773 1.35617 3974.79 3860.85 701.15 21 3325 3369.99 0.96249 0.98665 3454.58 3243.58 81.42 22 1495 3376.08 0.90899 0.44282 1644.67 3068.84 -1573.84 23 1907 3382.17 0.98078 0.56384 1944.37 3317.18 -1410.18 24 2165 3388.27 1.14773 0.63897 1886.33 3888.82 -1723.82 25 2293 3394.36 0.96249 0.67553 2382.36 3267.04 -974.04 26 2940 3400.45 0.90899 0.86459 3234.34 3090.99 -150.99 27 5295 3406.54 0.98078 1.55436 5398.75 3341.08 1953.92 28 3273 3412.64 1.14773 0.95908 2851.71 3916.79 -643.79 29 1602 3418.73 0.96249 0.46860 1664.43 3290.49 -1688.49 30 2528 3424.82 0.90899 0.73814 2781.10 3113.14 -585.14 31 4556 3430.91 0.98078 1.32793 4645.27 3364.98 1191.02 32 5847 3437.01 1.14773 1.70119 5094.39 3944.76 1902.24 33 6965 3443.10 0.96249 2.02289 7236.43 3313.95 3651.05 34 3821 3449.19 0.90899 1.10780 4203.55 3135.29 685.71 35 2240 3455.28 0.98078 0.64828 2283.89 3388.88 -1148.88 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3972.73 37 3337.41 38 3157.45

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Decomposition Data demand Length 35 Additive Model Fitted Trend Equation: Yt = 3222.11 + 7.01411*t Seasonal Indices Period Index 1 -131.906 2 -240.719 3 -51.281 4 423.906 Accuracy Measures MAPE 41 MAD 1168 MSD 2032781 Time demand Trend Seasonal Detrend Deseason Predict Error 1 1655 3229.13 -131.906 -1574.13 1786.91 3097.22 -1442.22 2 3151 3236.14 -240.719 -85.14 3391.72 2995.42 155.58 3 4162 3243.16 -51.281 918.84 4213.28 3191.88 970.12 4 3254 3250.17 423.906 3.83 2830.09 3674.08 -420.08 5 2524 3257.19 -131.906 -733.19 2655.91 3125.28 -601.28 6 4515 3264.20 -240.719 1250.80 4755.72 3023.48 1491.52 7 2988 3271.21 -51.281 -283.21 3039.28 3219.93 -231.93 8 4544 3278.23 423.906 1265.77 4120.09 3702.13 841.87 9 6462 3285.24 -131.906 3176.76 6593.91 3153.34 3308.66 10 5567 3292.26 -240.719 2274.74 5807.72 3051.54 2515.46 11 3461 3299.27 -51.281 161.73 3512.28 3247.99 213.01 12 4487 3306.28 423.906 1180.72 4063.09 3730.19 756.81 13 2750 3313.30 -131.906 -563.30 2881.91 3181.39 -431.39 14 1450 3320.31 -240.719 -1870.31 1690.72 3079.59 -1629.59 15 1806 3327.33 -51.281 -1521.33 1857.28 3276.05 -1470.05 16 2484 3334.34 423.906 -850.34 2060.09 3758.25 -1274.25 17 1715 3341.35 -131.906 -1626.35 1846.91 3209.45 -1494.45 18 2178 3348.37 -240.719 -1170.37 2418.72 3107.65 -929.65 19 2802 3355.38 -51.281 -553.38 2853.28 3304.10 -502.10 20 4562 3362.40 423.906 1199.60 4138.09 3786.30 775.70 21 3325 3369.41 -131.906 -44.41 3456.91 3237.50 87.50 22 1495 3376.43 -240.719 -1881.43 1735.72 3135.71 -1640.71 23 1907 3383.44 -51.281 -1476.44 1958.28 3332.16 -1425.16 24 2165 3390.45 423.906 -1225.45 1741.09 3814.36 -1649.36 25 2293 3397.47 -131.906 -1104.47 2424.91 3265.56 -972.56 26 2940 3404.48 -240.719 -464.48 3180.72 3163.76 -223.76 27 5295 3411.50 -51.281 1883.50 5346.28 3360.21 1934.79 28 3273 3418.51 423.906 -145.51 2849.09 3842.42 -569.42 29 1602 3425.52 -131.906 -1823.52 1733.91 3293.62 -1691.62 30 2528 3432.54 -240.719 -904.54 2768.72 3191.82 -663.82 31 4556 3439.55 -51.281 1116.45 4607.28 3388.27 1167.73 32 5847 3446.57 423.906 2400.43 5423.09 3870.47 1976.53 33 6965 3453.58 -131.906 3511.42 7096.91 3321.67 3643.33 34 3821 3460.59 -240.719 360.41 4061.72 3219.88 601.12 35 2240 3467.61 -51.281 -1227.61 2291.28 3416.33 -1176.33 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3898.53 37 3349.73 38 3247.93

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Trend Linear Data demand Length 35 Fitted Trend Equation Yt = 3206.34 + 7.21737*t Accuracy Measures MAPE 42 MAD 1193 MSD 2107277 Time demand Trend Detrend 1 1655 3213.56 -1558.56 2 3151 3220.78 -69.78 3 4162 3228.00 934.00 4 3254 3235.21 18.79 5 2524 3242.43 -718.43 6 4515 3249.65 1265.35 7 2988 3256.87 -268.87 8 4544 3264.08 1279.92 9 6462 3271.30 3190.70 10 5567 3278.52 2288.48 11 3461 3285.74 175.26 12 4487 3292.95 1194.05 13 2750 3300.17 -550.17 14 1450 3307.39 -1857.39 15 1806 3314.61 -1508.61 16 2484 3321.82 -837.82 17 1715 3329.04 -1614.04 18 2178 3336.26 -1158.26 19 2802 3343.47 -541.47 20 4562 3350.69 1211.31 21 3325 3357.91 -32.91 22 1495 3365.13 -1870.13 23 1907 3372.34 -1465.34 24 2165 3379.56 -1214.56 25 2293 3386.78 -1093.78 26 2940 3394.00 -454.00 27 5295 3401.21 1893.79 28 3273 3408.43 -135.43 29 1602 3415.65 -1813.65 30 2528 3422.87 -894.87 31 4556 3430.08 1125.92 32 5847 3437.30 2409.70 33 6965 3444.52 3520.48 34 3821 3451.74 369.26 35 2240 3458.95 -1218.95 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3466.17 37 3473.39 38 3480.60

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.1 Gamma (trend) 0.2 Accuracy Measures MAPE 64 MAD 1362 MSD 2888755 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 2331.41 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2305.17 2424.07 -1189.07 3 3240 2460.64 2374.05 865.95 4 2880 2580.15 2546.84 333.16 5 2185 2624.21 2673.02 -488.02 6 910 2527.58 2707.31 -1797.31 7 1951 2512.36 2574.74 -623.74 8 3650 2657.34 2547.04 1102.96 9 4155 2858.17 2714.08 1440.92 10 3218 2971.15 2943.73 274.27 11 805 2836.48 3062.20 -2257.20 12 2235 2817.64 2882.38 -647.38 13 3462 2911.73 2850.59 611.41 14 1515 2812.72 2956.91 -1441.91 15 947 2640.85 2829.06 -1882.06 16 750 2432.60 2619.55 -1869.55 17 1340 2270.52 2373.91 -1033.91 18 4560 2428.03 2191.15 2368.85 19 1369 2293.34 2396.04 -1027.04 20 2250 2241.72 2240.80 9.20 21 2780 2248.44 2189.37 590.63 22 5910 2578.11 2207.90 3702.10 23 2720 2622.45 2611.62 108.38 24 1980 2590.31 2658.13 -678.13 25 1570 2508.18 2612.42 -1042.42 26 2107 2469.20 2509.44 -402.44 27 5215 2737.67 2462.41 2752.59 28 2460 2753.34 2785.94 -325.94 29 4950 3010.58 2795.09 2154.91 30 2650 3050.88 3095.42 -445.42 31 2130 3027.14 3126.82 -996.82 32 5984 3373.22 3083.14 2900.86 33 7807 3919.22 3487.24 4319.76 34 2703 3977.96 4119.63 -1416.63 35 1955 3930.54 4150.04 -2195.04 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4058.72 37 4186.90 38 4315.08

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.2 Gamma (trend) 0.3 Accuracy Measures MAPE 67 MAD 1481 MSD 3192234 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 2569.59 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2453.02 2757.52 -1522.52 3 3240 2687.68 2549.60 690.40 4 2880 2836.54 2825.68 54.32 5 2185 2819.25 2977.81 -792.81 6 910 2512.35 2912.94 -2002.94 7 1951 2378.90 2485.87 -534.87 8 3650 2586.26 2320.32 1329.68 9 4155 2916.97 2607.46 1547.54 10 3218 3068.42 3031.03 186.97 11 805 2715.96 3193.70 -2388.70 12 2235 2605.33 2697.91 -462.91 13 3462 2740.01 2559.51 902.49 14 1515 2501.67 2748.34 -1233.34 15 947 2138.20 2436.00 -1489.00 16 750 1736.55 1983.19 -1233.19 17 1340 1474.04 1507.55 -167.55 18 4560 1899.99 1234.98 3325.02 19 1369 1762.15 1860.43 -491.43 20 2250 1804.48 1693.11 556.89 21 2780 1971.09 1768.86 1011.14 22 5910 2778.90 1996.13 3913.87 23 2720 2975.02 3038.78 -318.78 24 1980 2968.62 3215.77 -1235.77 25 1570 2822.17 3135.22 -1565.22 26 2107 2737.29 2894.86 -787.86 27 5215 3253.16 2762.71 2452.29 28 2460 3232.58 3425.72 -965.72 29 4950 3667.75 3347.19 1602.81 30 2650 3632.82 3878.53 -1228.53 31 2130 3441.91 3769.89 -1639.89 32 5984 3981.27 3480.59 2503.41 33 7807 4897.52 4170.15 3636.85 34 2703 4784.29 5304.61 -2601.61 35 1955 4419.23 5035.28 -3080.28 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4485.40 37 4551.58 38 4617.76

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.3 Gamma (trend) 0.4 Accuracy Measures MAPE 71 MAD 1603 MSD 3712522 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 2807.77 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2567.52 3138.60 -1903.60 3 3240 2840.95 2669.93 570.07 4 2880 2972.23 3011.76 -131.76 5 2185 2844.56 3127.23 -942.23 6 910 2293.55 2886.50 -1976.50 7 1951 2054.11 2098.30 -147.30 8 3650 2383.83 1841.19 1808.81 9 4155 2918.08 2387.97 1767.03 10 3218 3159.38 3134.26 83.74 11 805 2611.42 3385.61 -2580.61 12 2235 2440.09 2527.98 -292.98 13 3462 2663.64 2321.48 1140.52 14 1515 2331.83 2681.90 -1166.90 15 947 1831.14 2210.06 -1263.06 16 750 1315.46 1557.81 -807.81 17 1340 1063.63 945.19 394.81 18 4560 1886.52 740.74 3819.26 19 1369 1826.05 2021.93 -652.93 20 2250 1993.18 1883.12 366.88 21 2780 2299.99 2094.27 685.73 22 5910 3511.36 2483.37 3426.63 23 2720 3690.15 4105.93 -1385.93 24 1980 3476.89 4118.41 -2138.41 25 1570 3024.98 3648.54 -2078.54 26 2107 2695.14 2947.21 -840.21 27 5215 3326.08 2516.55 2698.45 28 2460 3167.91 3471.30 -1011.30 29 4950 3719.24 3191.77 1758.23 30 2650 3562.86 3954.09 -1304.09 31 2130 3187.85 3641.22 -1511.22 32 5984 3954.61 3084.87 2899.13 33 7807 5281.76 4199.51 3607.49 34 2703 4982.60 5959.57 -3256.57 35 1955 4275.23 5269.61 -3314.61 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4164.49 37 4053.76 38 3943.02

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.4 Gamma (trend) 0.5 Accuracy Measures MAPE 76 MAD 1712 MSD 4353600 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 3045.94 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2634.39 3567.32 -2332.32 3 3240 2909.58 2689.30 550.70 4 2880 2996.78 3074.64 -194.64 5 2185 2747.74 3122.91 -937.91 6 910 1975.77 2686.29 -1776.29 7 1951 1715.84 1559.06 391.94 8 3650 2286.51 1377.51 2272.49 9 4155 3103.61 2402.68 1752.32 10 3218 3429.35 3570.24 -352.24 11 805 2617.32 3825.53 -3020.53 12 2235 2339.64 2409.40 -174.40 13 3462 2642.91 2096.84 1365.16 14 1515 2209.88 2673.14 -1158.14 15 947 1583.89 2008.49 -1061.49 16 750 1002.12 1170.20 -420.20 17 1340 838.63 504.39 835.61 18 4560 2128.81 508.02 4051.98 19 1369 2112.76 2608.60 -1239.60 20 2250 2306.78 2344.63 -94.63 21 2780 2623.83 2519.72 260.28 22 5910 4097.30 2888.83 3021.17 23 2720 4067.92 4966.53 -2246.53 24 1980 3484.71 4487.84 -2507.84 25 1570 2669.84 3403.06 -1833.06 26 2107 2175.75 2221.58 -114.58 27 5215 3108.75 1704.58 3510.42 28 2460 2987.80 3339.66 -879.66 29 4950 3805.67 3042.78 1907.22 30 2650 3605.25 4242.09 -1592.09 31 2130 3085.96 3723.26 -1593.26 32 5984 4124.79 2885.31 3098.69 33 7807 5849.13 4543.88 3263.12 34 2703 5233.71 6920.84 -4217.84 35 1955 4059.11 5461.85 -3506.85 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3585.89 37 3112.67 38 2639.44

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.5 Gamma (trend) 0.6 Accuracy Measures MAPE 82 MAD 1871 MSD 5050173 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 3284.12 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2639.34 4043.67 -2808.67 3 3240 2898.14 2556.29 683.71 4 2880 2950.10 3020.21 -140.21 5 2185 2607.55 3030.11 -845.11 6 910 1672.01 2434.02 -1524.02 7 1951 1496.14 1041.28 909.72 8 3650 2394.16 1138.32 2511.68 9 4155 3472.42 2789.84 1365.16 10 3218 3747.83 4277.65 -1059.65 11 805 2520.08 4235.16 -3430.16 12 2235 2106.68 1978.37 256.63 13 3462 2551.98 1641.96 1820.04 14 1515 2074.13 2633.27 -1118.27 15 947 1383.47 1819.94 -872.94 16 750 808.70 867.40 -117.40 17 1340 798.70 257.40 1082.60 18 4560 2566.09 572.19 3987.81 19 1369 2452.46 3535.92 -2166.92 20 2250 2511.11 2772.21 -522.21 21 2780 2727.10 2674.19 105.81 22 5910 4415.96 2921.93 2988.07 23 2720 4113.61 5507.22 -2787.22 24 1980 3174.35 4368.69 -2388.69 25 1570 2141.41 2712.83 -1142.83 26 2107 1722.02 1337.04 769.96 27 5215 3181.82 1148.64 4066.36 28 2460 3144.17 3828.35 -1368.35 29 4950 4165.10 3380.19 1569.81 30 2650 3761.03 4872.06 -2222.06 31 2130 2965.69 3801.38 -1671.38 32 5984 4244.31 2504.62 3479.38 33 7807 6317.03 4827.06 2979.94 34 2703 5248.38 7793.76 -5090.76 35 1955 3576.44 5197.88 -3242.88 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 2553.08 37 1529.72 38 506.35

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.6 Gamma (trend) 0.7 Accuracy Measures MAPE 89 MAD 2027 MSD 5930681 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 3522.30 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2568.06 4567.66 -3332.66 3 3240 2829.48 2213.71 1026.29 4 2880 2890.47 2906.17 -26.17 5 2185 2493.47 2956.17 -771.17 6 910 1440.11 2235.27 -1325.27 7 1951 1420.72 625.30 1325.70 8 3650 2655.08 1162.71 2487.29 9 4155 3869.69 3441.73 713.27 10 3218 3913.17 4955.91 -1737.91 11 805 2190.79 4269.46 -3464.46 12 2235 1777.80 1092.01 1142.99 13 3462 2540.83 1159.08 2302.92 14 1515 2064.74 2889.34 -1374.34 15 947 1302.61 1836.02 -889.02 16 750 730.20 700.50 49.50 17 1340 863.55 148.89 1191.11 18 4560 3049.00 782.51 3777.49 19 1369 2643.20 4554.50 -3185.50 20 2250 2474.32 2810.79 -560.79 21 2780 2630.55 2406.37 373.63 22 5910 4633.81 2719.53 3190.47 23 2720 4057.12 6062.79 -3342.79 24 1980 2820.85 4082.12 -2102.12 25 1570 1727.19 1962.96 -392.96 26 2107 1545.90 704.26 1402.74 27 5215 3573.85 1112.13 4102.87 28 2460 3421.31 4863.28 -2403.28 29 4950 4450.55 3701.36 1248.64 30 2650 3692.01 5255.03 -2605.03 31 2130 2638.95 3402.38 -1272.38 32 5984 4316.37 1814.92 4169.08 33 7807 6781.54 5243.35 2563.65 34 2703 5135.90 8785.26 -6082.26 35 1955 3007.03 4585.07 -2630.07 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 1351.57 37 -303.90 38 -1959.36

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Exponential Smoothing Holt Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.7 Gamma (trend) 0.8 Accuracy Measures MAPE 96 MAD 2144 MSD 6957141 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 3760.47 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2406.28 5139.28 -3904.28 3 3240 2747.61 1598.70 1641.30 4 2880 2873.75 2859.15 20.85 5 2185 2428.59 2996.96 -811.96 6 910 1266.13 2097.11 -1187.11 7 1951 1446.66 269.87 1681.13 8 3650 2972.55 1391.83 2258.17 9 4155 4163.19 4182.29 -27.29 10 3218 3859.89 5357.65 -2139.65 11 805 1720.35 3856.15 -3051.15 12 2235 1566.89 7.96 2227.04 13 3462 2753.89 1101.64 2360.36 14 1515 2143.63 3610.45 -2095.45 15 947 1210.92 1826.74 -879.74 16 750 645.41 401.37 348.63 17 1340 947.33 31.09 1308.91 18 4560 3511.80 1066.00 3494.00 19 1369 2634.43 5587.11 -4218.11 20 2250 2279.28 2347.60 -97.60 21 2780 2527.34 1937.79 842.21 22 5910 4934.25 2657.49 3252.51 23 2720 3969.74 6885.80 -4165.80 24 1980 2462.53 3588.45 -1608.45 25 1570 1453.15 1180.51 389.49 26 2107 1591.67 389.24 1717.76 27 5215 4097.41 1489.71 3725.29 28 2460 3546.48 6081.61 -3621.61 29 4950 4515.77 3502.58 1447.42 30 2650 3439.73 5282.43 -2632.43 31 2130 2310.67 2732.22 -602.22 32 5984 4568.57 1265.92 4718.08 33 7807 7314.69 6165.95 1641.05 34 2703 4841.41 9831.05 -7128.05 35 1955 2378.32 3366.07 -1411.07 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 112.78 37 -2152.77 38 -4418.31

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.1 Gamma (trend) 0.2 Delta (seasonal) 0.3 Accuracy Measures MAPE 54 MAD 1489 MSD 3483061 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.25 4301.86 173.14 2 1235 3265.71 3000.37 -1765.37 3 3240 2314.52 2068.10 1171.90 4 2880 2686.61 2412.47 467.53 5 2185 3262.71 2911.41 -726.41 6 910 1764.98 1537.53 -627.53 7 1951 1664.82 1393.89 557.11 8 3650 1636.65 1343.34 2306.66 9 4155 1849.08 1558.71 2596.29 10 3218 1074.92 933.96 2284.04 11 805 1636.30 1502.17 -697.17 12 2235 2045.01 1833.63 401.37 13 3462 2185.20 1948.04 1513.96 14 1515 1371.00 1235.90 279.10 15 947 1009.65 906.18 40.82 16 750 1582.65 1404.17 -654.17 17 1340 1763.27 1510.95 -170.95 18 4560 865.24 717.12 3842.88 19 1369 840.45 786.07 582.93 20 2250 1259.14 1195.44 1054.56 21 2780 1912.83 1850.18 929.82 22 5910 2255.41 2204.27 3705.73 23 2720 1200.29 1211.00 1509.00 24 1980 2086.49 2149.14 -169.14 25 1570 2904.55 2985.28 -1415.28 26 2107 4058.93 4133.75 -2026.75 27 5215 1714.50 1729.46 3485.54 28 2460 2398.02 2495.73 -35.73 29 4950 3002.99 3119.86 1830.14 30 2650 4687.93 4905.76 -2255.76 31 2130 3445.25 3572.39 -1442.39 32 5984 2712.38 2790.15 3193.85 33 7807 4324.23 4521.21 3285.79 34 2703 5208.52 5490.65 -2787.65 35 1955 3909.56 4079.37 -2124.37 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4554.05 37 6051.98 38 4846.27

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.2 Gamma (trend) 0.3 Delta (seasonal) 0.4 Accuracy Measures MAPE 68 MAD 1592 MSD 3740747 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.25 4301.86 173.14 2 1235 3278.80 3018.69 -1783.69 3 3240 2181.84 1880.93 1359.07 4 2880 2646.60 2376.91 503.09 5 2185 3293.34 2974.97 -789.97 6 910 1652.10 1437.58 -527.58 7 1951 1670.60 1361.86 589.14 8 3650 1611.74 1313.96 2336.04 9 4155 2023.71 1844.63 2310.37 10 3218 1297.84 1275.08 1942.92 11 805 2693.69 2845.58 -2040.58 12 2235 3343.30 3383.70 -1148.70 13 3462 3333.10 3302.97 159.03 14 1515 1951.87 1939.82 -424.82 15 947 1600.55 1568.15 -621.15 16 750 2389.96 2274.65 -1524.65 17 1340 2392.16 2141.03 -801.03 18 4560 1058.27 898.42 3661.58 19 1369 1309.42 1357.47 11.53 20 2250 1963.49 2033.88 216.12 21 2780 2919.22 3036.37 -256.37 22 5910 3148.08 3255.40 2654.60 23 2720 1773.93 1898.83 821.17 24 1980 3069.89 3329.07 -1349.07 25 1570 4046.66 4282.41 -2712.41 26 2107 4965.47 5062.41 -2955.41 27 5215 1928.92 1894.25 3320.75 28 2460 2900.33 3086.89 -626.89 29 4950 3502.46 3678.61 1271.39 30 2650 5361.55 5705.69 -3055.69 31 2130 3945.06 4069.58 -1939.58 32 5984 2749.13 2755.21 3228.79 33 7807 4760.75 5040.45 2766.55 34 2703 5584.41 6029.35 -3326.35 35 1955 4273.81 4469.31 -2514.31 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4696.83 37 5905.83 38 4125.13

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.3 Gamma (trend) 0.4 Delta (seasonal) 0.5 Accuracy Measures MAPE 77 MAD 1734 MSD 4623394 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.25 4301.86 173.14 2 1235 3291.89 3039.64 -1804.64 3 3240 2047.66 1663.41 1576.59 4 2880 2626.49 2386.68 493.32 5 2185 3373.11 3132.76 -947.76 6 910 1587.09 1389.80 -479.80 7 1951 1719.69 1367.90 583.10 8 3650 1610.10 1315.99 2334.01 9 4155 2219.46 2204.02 1950.98 10 3218 1521.90 1641.21 1576.79 11 805 3819.18 4376.50 -3571.50 12 2235 4280.44 4447.18 -2212.18 13 3462 3689.66 3593.38 -131.38 14 1515 1964.37 1902.45 -387.45 15 947 1590.97 1494.40 -547.40 16 750 2203.66 1934.86 -1184.86 17 1340 1911.44 1414.05 -74.05 18 4560 720.22 458.24 4101.76 19 1369 1393.30 1583.25 -214.25 20 2250 2167.96 2402.37 -152.37 21 2780 3795.61 4143.70 -1363.70 22 5910 3643.15 3823.09 2086.91 23 2720 1886.13 2068.57 651.43 24 1980 3322.18 3704.60 -1724.60 25 1570 4580.91 4833.11 -3263.11 26 2107 5018.44 4836.96 -2729.96 27 5215 1610.48 1406.44 3808.56 28 2460 2754.61 3028.00 -568.00 29 4950 3565.32 3821.37 1128.63 30 2650 5867.07 6419.21 -3769.21 31 2130 4235.41 4315.36 -2185.36 32 5984 2416.24 2295.90 3688.10 33 7807 4995.58 5468.70 2338.30 34 2703 5965.00 6693.65 -3990.65 35 1955 4639.27 4850.09 -2895.09 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 4426.84 37 5147.50 38 3156.39

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.4 Gamma (trend) 0.5 Delta (seasonal) 0.6 Accuracy Measures MAPE 88 MAD 1939 MSD 6179382 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.25 4301.86 173.14 2 1235 3304.98 3063.20 -1828.20 3 3240 1911.33 1413.47 1826.53 4 2880 2635.95 2472.98 407.02 5 2185 3508.85 3400.27 -1215.27 6 910 1559.28 1371.13 -461.13 7 1951 1770.69 1352.33 598.67 8 3650 1580.92 1284.34 2365.66 9 4155 2390.75 2579.97 1575.03 10 3218 1738.25 2011.29 1206.71 11 805 4912.43 5925.63 -5120.63 12 2235 4686.60 4673.39 -2438.39 13 3462 3375.06 2917.92 544.08 14 1515 1694.40 1506.17 8.83 15 947 1328.50 1164.42 -217.42 16 750 1893.33 1528.58 -778.58 17 1340 1547.60 885.84 454.16 18 4560 544.09 253.10 4306.90 19 1369 1609.01 2073.50 -704.50 20 2250 2613.23 3085.18 -835.18 21 2780 5240.61 5821.45 -3041.45 22 5910 3632.43 3610.79 2299.21 23 2720 1774.56 1946.20 773.80 24 1980 3413.66 3907.61 -1927.61 25 1570 5112.98 5289.74 -3719.74 26 2107 4653.35 3959.11 -1852.11 27 5215 1197.47 801.33 4413.67 28 2460 2692.52 3202.94 -742.94 29 4950 3940.05 4430.68 519.32 30 2650 6948.50 7839.07 -5189.07 31 2130 4379.31 4267.43 -2137.43 32 5984 2007.45 1690.15 4293.85 33 7807 5294.17 6135.41 1671.59 34 2703 6622.10 7766.21 -5063.21 35 1955 4998.80 5113.28 -3158.28 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3679.66 37 3616.32 38 1801.56

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.5 Gamma (trend) 0.6 Delta (seasonal) 0.7 Accuracy Measures MAPE 102 MAD 2198 MSD 8981147 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.25 4301.9 173.14 2 1235 3318.07 3089.4 -1854.39 3 3240 1772.22 1128.8 2111.20 4 2880 2685.52 2673.2 206.85 5 2185 3694.63 3760.7 -1575.75 6 910 1551.63 1339.4 -429.41 7 1951 1762.85 1228.3 722.69 8 3650 1498.42 1198.9 2451.08 9 4155 2560.83 3021.2 1133.83 10 3218 1992.02 2436.4 781.57 11 805 5928.70 7352.3 -6547.33 12 2235 4490.44 3895.3 -1660.29 13 3462 2655.86 1708.6 1753.40 14 1515 1417.41 1186.5 328.54 15 947 1131.59 1020.7 -73.68 16 750 2003.43 1732.6 -982.57 17 1340 1642.18 893.9 446.13 18 4560 537.02 241.6 4318.42 19 1369 1804.92 2556.8 -1187.79 20 2250 2967.49 3565.4 -1315.45 21 2780 6064.88 6489.0 -3708.98 22 5910 3185.72 2712.4 3197.62 23 2720 1567.73 1744.4 975.56 24 1980 3603.51 4361.2 -2381.23 25 1570 5656.46 5733.8 -4163.81 26 2107 4392.25 2982.9 -875.90 27 5215 847.10 290.5 4924.47 28 2460 2841.13 3791.5 -1331.45 29 4950 4546.04 5347.2 -397.25 30 2650 9063.25 10263.9 -7613.85 31 2130 3973.57 3306.8 -1176.75 32 5984 1468.13 917.3 5066.66 33 7807 5738.67 7350.5 456.47 34 2703 8052.52 9910.6 -7207.64 35 1955 5607.39 5336.9 -3381.94 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 2275.06 37 1162.94 38 -141.12

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.6 Gamma (trend) 0.7 Delta (seasonal) 0.8 Accuracy Measures MAPE 124 MAD 2756 MSD 15294658 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.3 4301.9 173.1 2 1235 3331.2 3118.2 -1883.2 3 3240 1629.7 806.8 2433.2 4 2880 2786.7 3031.5 -151.5 5 2185 3908.1 4148.9 -1963.9 6 910 1545.8 1241.9 -331.9 7 1951 1647.6 947.1 1003.9 8 3650 1394.5 1143.5 2506.5 9 4155 2820.6 3674.8 480.2 10 3218 2349.2 2975.1 242.9 11 805 6628.7 8174.8 -7369.8 12 2235 3645.2 2140.5 94.5 13 3462 1866.3 621.9 2840.1 14 1515 1360.4 1330.3 184.7 15 947 1109.8 1146.3 -199.3 16 750 2720.6 2595.6 -1845.6 17 1340 1734.2 685.2 654.8 18 4560 472.0 133.2 4426.8 19 1369 1935.2 2990.1 -1621.1 20 2250 3437.9 4075.3 -1825.3 21 2780 6876.2 6578.0 -3798.0 22 5910 2376.3 1329.8 4580.2 23 2720 1393.9 1693.7 1026.3 24 1980 4259.5 5607.5 -3627.5 25 1570 7062.9 6701.5 -5131.5 26 2107 3794.8 1158.6 948.4 27 5215 496.2 -146.5 5361.5 28 2460 3280.5 4999.7 -2539.7 29 4950 5912.1 7022.1 -2072.1 30 2650 13017.7 13557.6 -10907.6 31 2130 2670.4 1131.6 998.4 32 5984 908.9 320.9 5663.1 33 7807 7308.3 10827.1 -3020.1 34 2703 11522.6 14398.9 -11695.9 35 1955 6628.7 4800.4 -2845.4 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 46.01 37 -2297.38 38 -3280.93

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Exponential Smoothing Winters Data Demand Length 35 Smoothing Constants Alpha (level) 0.7 Gamma (trend) 0.8 Delta (seasonal) 0.9 Accuracy Measures MAPE 159 MAD 3804 MSD 31577802 Time Demand Smooth Predict Error 1 4475 4656.3 4301.9 173.1 2 1235 3344.3 3149.6 -1914.6 3 3240 1483.0 444.7 2795.3 4 2880 2952.3 3600.2 -720.2 5 2185 4106.6 4431.0 -2246.0 6 910 1527.8 1029.0 -119.0 7 1951 1426.2 573.5 1377.5 8 3650 1348.1 1276.8 2373.2 9 4155 3276.1 4678.5 -523.5 10 3218 2825.5 3552.4 -334.4 11 805 6433.4 7479.6 -6674.6 12 2235 2414.0 99.5 2135.5 13 3462 1411.7 421.2 3040.8 14 1515 1680.4 2149.9 -634.9 15 947 1217.1 1298.4 -351.4 16 750 3441.3 3063.7 -2313.7 17 1340 1241.4 -197.0 1537.0 18 4560 394.1 135.1 4424.9 19 1369 2333.4 3935.1 -2566.1 20 2250 4361.5 4697.4 -2447.4 21 2780 6655.7 4348.0 -1568.0 22 5910 1356.0 27.0 5883.0 23 2720 1477.0 2177.3 542.7 24 1980 6005.3 8363.7 -6383.7 25 1570 9704.7 6673.7 -5103.7 26 2107 2057.5 -1849.6 3956.6 27 5215 250.6 -210.1 5425.1 28 2460 4442.3 7633.8 -5173.8 29 4950 9963.0 10693.5 -5743.5 30 2650 17220.0 10805.2 -8155.2 31 2130 904.6 -1044.5 3174.5 32 5984 674.9 576.7 5407.3 33 7807 12755.3 21323.1 -13516.1 34 2703 22648.5 24555.5 -21852.5 35 1955 4999.1 -578.6 2533.6 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 -1312.23 37 -4783.53 38 -7579.45

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Decomposition Multiplicative Model

Fitted Trend Equation: Yt = 2004.99 + 47.6557*t Seasonal Indices Period Index 1 1.30084 2 0.90078 3 0.81632 4 0.98206 Accuracy Measures MAPE 58 MAD 1226 MSD 2180299 Time Demand Trend Seasonal Detrend Deseason Predict Error 1 4475 2052.65 1.30084 2.18011 3440.08 2670.17 1804.83 2 1235 2100.31 0.90078 0.58801 1371.04 1891.91 -656.91 3 3240 2147.96 0.81632 1.50841 3969.02 1753.43 1486.57 4 2880 2195.62 0.98206 1.31170 2932.61 2156.23 723.77 5 2185 2243.27 1.30084 0.97402 1679.68 2918.14 -733.14 6 910 2290.93 0.90078 0.39722 1010.24 2063.62 -1153.62 7 1951 2338.58 0.81632 0.83427 2389.99 1909.04 41.96 8 3650 2386.24 0.98206 1.52960 3716.68 2343.43 1306.57 9 4155 2433.90 1.30084 1.70714 3194.09 3166.11 988.89 10 3218 2481.55 0.90078 1.29677 3572.47 2235.32 982.68 11 805 2529.21 0.81632 0.31828 986.13 2064.65 -1259.65 12 2235 2576.86 0.98206 0.86733 2275.83 2530.63 -295.63 13 3462 2624.52 1.30084 1.31910 2661.36 3414.08 47.92 14 1515 2672.17 0.90078 0.56695 1681.88 2407.03 -892.03 15 947 2719.83 0.81632 0.34818 1160.08 2220.26 -1273.26 16 750 2767.49 0.98206 0.27100 763.70 2717.83 -1967.83 17 1340 2815.14 1.30084 0.47600 1030.10 3662.05 -2322.05 18 4560 2862.80 0.90078 1.59285 5062.30 2578.74 1981.26 19 1369 2910.45 0.81632 0.47037 1677.03 2375.87 -1006.87 20 2250 2958.11 0.98206 0.76062 2291.10 2905.04 -655.04 21 2780 3005.76 1.30084 0.92489 2137.08 3910.02 -1130.02 22 5910 3053.42 0.90078 1.93554 6561.00 2750.45 3159.55 23 2720 3101.07 0.81632 0.87712 3332.01 2531.48 188.52 24 1980 3148.73 0.98206 0.62882 2016.17 3092.24 -1112.24 25 1570 3196.39 1.30084 0.49118 1206.91 4157.99 -2587.99 26 2107 3244.04 0.90078 0.64950 2339.09 2922.16 -815.16 27 5215 3291.70 0.81632 1.58429 6388.40 2687.09 2527.91 28 2460 3339.35 0.98206 0.73667 2504.94 3279.44 -819.44 29 4950 3387.01 1.30084 1.46147 3805.23 4405.96 544.04 30 2650 3434.66 0.90078 0.77155 2941.90 3093.87 -443.87 31 2130 3482.32 0.81632 0.61166 2609.26 2842.70 -712.70 32 5984 3529.98 0.98206 1.69520 6093.32 3466.65 2517.35 33 7807 3577.63 1.30084 2.18217 6001.50 4653.93 3153.07 34 2703 3625.29 0.90078 0.74560 3000.74 3265.58 -562.58 35 1955 3672.94 0.81632 0.53227 2394.89 2998.31 -1043.31 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3653.85 37 4901.90 38 3437.28

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Decomposition Additive Model Fitted Trend Equation: Yt = 1997.62 + 47.5994*t Seasonal Indices Period Index 1 685.859 2 -201.828 3 -335.453 4 -148.578 Accuracy Measures MAPE 59 MAD 1250 MSD 2216307 Time Demand Trend Seasonal Detrend Deseason Predict Error 1 4475 2045.22 685.859 2429.78 3789.14 2731.08 1743.92 2 1235 2092.82 -201.828 -857.82 1436.83 1890.99 -655.99 3 3240 2140.42 -335.453 1099.58 3575.45 1804.97 1435.03 4 2880 2188.02 -148.578 691.98 3028.58 2039.44 840.56 5 2185 2235.62 685.859 -50.62 1499.14 2921.48 -736.48 6 910 2283.22 -201.828 -1373.22 1111.83 2081.39 -1171.39 7 1951 2330.82 -335.453 -379.82 2286.45 1995.37 -44.37 8 3650 2378.42 -148.578 1271.58 3798.58 2229.84 1420.16 9 4155 2426.02 685.859 1728.98 3469.14 3111.88 1043.12 10 3218 2473.62 -201.828 744.38 3419.83 2271.79 946.21 11 805 2521.22 -335.453 -1716.22 1140.45 2185.76 -1380.76 12 2235 2568.82 -148.578 -333.82 2383.58 2420.24 -185.24 13 3462 2616.42 685.859 845.58 2776.14 3302.27 159.73 14 1515 2664.01 -201.828 -1149.01 1716.83 2462.19 -947.19 15 947 2711.61 -335.453 -1764.61 1282.45 2376.16 -1429.16 16 750 2759.21 -148.578 -2009.21 898.58 2610.64 -1860.64 17 1340 2806.81 685.859 -1466.81 654.14 3492.67 -2152.67 18 4560 2854.41 -201.828 1705.59 4761.83 2652.58 1907.42 19 1369 2902.01 -335.453 -1533.01 1704.45 2566.56 -1197.56 20 2250 2949.61 -148.578 -699.61 2398.58 2801.03 -551.03 21 2780 2997.21 685.859 -217.21 2094.14 3683.07 -903.07 22 5910 3044.81 -201.828 2865.19 6111.83 2842.98 3067.02 23 2720 3092.41 -335.453 -372.41 3055.45 2756.96 -36.96 24 1980 3140.01 -148.578 -1160.01 2128.58 2991.43 -1011.43 25 1570 3187.61 685.859 -1617.61 884.14 3873.47 -2303.47 26 2107 3235.21 -201.828 -1128.21 2308.83 3033.38 -926.38 27 5215 3282.81 -335.453 1932.19 5550.45 2947.35 2267.65 28 2460 3330.41 -148.578 -870.41 2608.58 3181.83 -721.83 29 4950 3378.01 685.859 1571.99 4264.14 4063.86 886.14 30 2650 3425.60 -201.828 -775.60 2851.83 3223.78 -573.78 31 2130 3473.20 -335.453 -1343.20 2465.45 3137.75 -1007.75 32 5984 3520.80 -148.578 2463.20 6132.58 3372.23 2611.77 33 7807 3568.40 685.859 4238.60 7121.14 4254.26 3552.74 34 2703 3616.00 -201.828 -913.00 2904.83 3414.17 -711.17 35 1955 3663.60 -335.453 -1708.60 2290.45 3328.15 -1373.15 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3562.62 37 4444.66 38 3604.57

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Trend Linear Data Demand Length 35 Fitted Trend Equation Yt = 2048.21 + 45.0246*t Accuracy Measures MAPE 64 MAD 1341 MSD 2469241 Time Demand Trend Detrend 1 4475 2093.24 2381.76 2 1235 2138.26 -903.26 3 3240 2183.29 1056.71 4 2880 2228.31 651.69 5 2185 2273.34 -88.34 6 910 2318.36 -1408.36 7 1951 2363.39 -412.39 8 3650 2408.41 1241.59 9 4155 2453.44 1701.56 10 3218 2498.46 719.54 11 805 2543.48 -1738.48 12 2235 2588.51 -353.51 13 3462 2633.53 828.47 14 1515 2678.56 -1163.56 15 947 2723.58 -1776.58 16 750 2768.61 -2018.61 17 1340 2813.63 -1473.63 18 4560 2858.66 1701.34 19 1369 2903.68 -1534.68 20 2250 2948.71 -698.71 21 2780 2993.73 -213.73 22 5910 3038.76 2871.24 23 2720 3083.78 -363.78 24 1980 3128.81 -1148.81 25 1570 3173.83 -1603.83 26 2107 3218.85 -1111.85 27 5215 3263.88 1951.12 28 2460 3308.90 -848.90 29 4950 3353.93 1596.07 30 2650 3398.95 -748.95 31 2130 3443.98 -1313.98 32 5984 3489.00 2495.00 33 7807 3534.03 4272.97 34 2703 3579.05 -876.05 35 1955 3624.08 -1669.08 Forecasts Period Forecast 36 3669.10 37 3714.13 38 3759.15