Ketahanan Cyberspace RI

Perumusan Kepentingan (Ekonomi) Nasional dalam Pengembangan dan

Ketahanan CyberSpace RI

Forum Kajian Kebijakan Luar Negeri (FKKLN)“Peran Diplomasi dukung Cyberspace sebagai Modalitas Perekonomian Nasional”

Sekolah Teknik Eletro & InformatikaKampus ITB, Bandung

Rudi Rusdiah BE,MA,Phd Cand.

AGENDA

• FENOMENA/ PORTRAIT OF ICT (TECHNOLOGY) TREND

• OVERVIEW ONE SECTOR OF ECONOMY (31) ICT SERVICE SECTOR

• ASYMMETRIX WAR BY PROXY – IS IT REAL ? HAPPENING IN INDONESIA ? CASE STUDY COMPUTER SOFTWARE SOFTWARE

• PERUMUSAN KEPENTINGAN NASIONAL DAN PENGEMBANGAN KETAHANAN CYBERSPACE RI

I. Fenomena/Potret Trend Teknologi Telematika

Focus Keyword: BIG DATA

Phenomena 1/3

1st DATA GROWTH EXPLOSION TREND IN IT ERA

Evolution History: Stone Age, Agriculture era, Industrial era, Information Tech.(IT)era.

PC era: Start of Data Growth PC Everywhere @Home, Office& School(UBIQUITOUS). 1ST. MOORE’S LAW: CPUspeed doubled &PC Price half every 18 month. Bill Gates: Information @ your finger tips. PC in RI : 30Million. WW: 2 Billion (2014)

Most data was Quantitative & Structured in Data Base utility. 1ST Data Explosion.Ex. : National Statistic Office (BPS RI) collected IO Table since 1971 ( 5year updated) benefit from PC revolution.

Focus: IT ERA: consist of: PC sub-era (1980) , Internet sub-era (1990), Mobile/ Convergence (2000),Big Data (2010) sub-era, IOT sub-era(2015-)

KEYNOTE INTEL @COMPUTEX 2013,TAIPEI

SEVERAL GLOBAL EXPERT PREDICTIONS THAT PC ERA IS OVER & SUNSET

Kent Olson–DigitalEqNov 1987

Lou Gerstner –CEO,IBMApril , 1999

1987

1987

1998

2006

MEGA TRENDCONVERGENCE

2 of 3

2nd Data Explosion 1st GADGET CONVERGENCE

2000- INTERNET (Cloud) sub-era Data more Ubiquitous & connected without boundary of time & space.2ND METCALFE LAW: Value of Net-work grows exponentially as the number of PC, Server, Notebook connected to CyberSpace/Cloud.

Mobile PC Sales increase (2014 ):7.86M ; Mobile Internet Sales:Smartphone 33 M(2014). 1st CONVERGENCE: GADGET (IT + TELCO) ERA NKRI Total Gadget 41.6 MData grow exponential & massif as every gadget has data /memory. TELCO DATA OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER : 141 M(Q1/2014) Rp 0.15-0.20 perKBTotal TELCO Gadget Penetration (Feature + SmartPhone) 290M (2013).

NKRI Net-User: 82M (2014) 34%pop, imagine Value & Data in Internet. WW 3B (2014) IPv4 (32bit address) IPv6(128bit)

Internet User 82 M (2014); BBM (79% 23,3 min/day); WA(57%, 6.2 min/day ; Line (30%); WeChat (28%); KakaoTalk (16%); Google (13% );Yahoo Messenger (9%)

OTT FB RI 64M, 56 M via phone. WW 1.2 M, 1M via Phone. 2013). FB only 10 years old?

3rd BIG BANG. SOCIAL MEDIA ERA OF OTT BIG DATA

MEGA-TRENDBIG DATA BIRTH

3 of 3

After Gadget Convergence Multi/Data (Text +Photo+ Video+ Sound Triple Play) 2ND Convergence: Multi Media + Social Media OTT ( OVER THE TOP) SUB ERA. DATA UNSTRUCTURED & QUALITATIVE ERA OF BIG DATA 3RD EXPLOSION.

Now: 385 Tweet/ second or 1 Billion Tweet from capitalCity of Jakarta (7.5%)

Indonesian DigitalViewer 6% around7.1 million (2013)

Japan Tsunami & Earthquake 2011

Revolution

friends

Business community

society

World

#PresidenJokowi 22K tweet/jam 10:00 s/d 18.30 Senin 20 Oct 2014Rupiah: Up 0.64% ke 12.032

Twit Command Center

TECHNOLOGY MEGA TREND: PC, IT, OTT BIG DATASummary 2014: BIG DATA Growth will be exponentially & fast. Are we ready ? NSA,CIA &FBI,M16,MNC use Unstructured &Qualitative soc. media data profiling behavior /life style to fight terrorism, & asymmetric & proxy war. Analyst Marketters buying pattern preference: FB, Twitter, Yahoo. Amazon Economist & Business Inteligence use Structured & Quantitative Data ie: Data IO for Economic Planning globally. Unfortunately, most NKRI Market industries DATA supplied by Foreign Analyst like IDC, Gartner, DataQuest with little national interest, while BPS kept data inclusive from ICT industry

Data increase 600% in last 5 Years (2015)

EXPLOSION OF DATASOURCE OF BIG DATA

MANY OF THESE COMPANIES& PRODUCTS YOU NEVER

HEARD BEFORE A DECADE AGO

Every Minuteof every day …

NEW NATIONS OF PLANET EARTH & CLOUD 2015

MASSIVE CHANGE IN GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS DEMOGRAPHY/ PEOPLE & MARKET ECONOMICS

IMPACT:

In 2015, Internet of Thing (IoT) (video cam, smart phone, wearable , sensor surveilance grow faster & devices connect to Internet 15 Billion (2x Global Population); Mobile traffic 2010-15 will 11x;Data Growth 6x; Overal traffic 3x ARE YOU READY?

YOU HAVE SEEN NOTHING YET. IS IT EVOLUTION FINISH ? FUTURE 4TH DATA EXPLOSION

FUTURE TECH IMPACT:

BIG DATA & NATION VISION

FROM COMMUNIC ASIA 2014 SUMMIT

Apa kata SBY, JKW & DPR kita ?

Asia rise : 1 Billion Middle Class 2015

NKRI: 4th largest Pop.; Facebook # 4; Twitter # 5 – VERY LUCRATIVE MARKET.GDP growth 2014 5.5 % > World GDP 3.6%, India 5.3%. RI -Ten Largest Economy GDP Rp 10,062 Trilliun, 2.3% Global GDP (Bisnis 2015 Apr10) Pop. 241M, Expenditure /Capita $ 8,539 (Jkt Post 7/5/2014 – ICP).GDP/Capita $3,592 Pop. 244 M (IMF/BPS –Bisnis 3 Mar 2014)Middle Class Growth to 56% - 134 Million (2010) – Bisnis 14/12/2013

MASSIVE CHANGE IN GEOPOLITICS , PEOPLE AND MARKET IN SOUTH / EAST ASIA

InfrastructureRanking 78 of 144

Impact of Investment in ICT Sectors on Gross Value Added & Entrepreneur Surplus

(2009-2013 ) during Big Data eraIndonesian IO Table Analysis

PROMOTOR : PROF DR ZULKIFLI HUSIN COPROMOTOR : PROF DR WAN USMAN

FORT COLLINS,COLORADO16-22 NOVEMBER 2014

(FINAL EXAMINATION MAY 2015)RUDI RUSDIAH

II. OVERVIEW OF SECTOR (31) ICT SERVICE SECTORFROM DISSERTATION

Analyzing Row 31 Keynes Aggregate Demand (KAD) TheoryThe result can be seen in the Next Slide Y = C + G + I + X Y = Aggregate DemandC = HouseHold Consumption; G = Government Spending; I = Investment; X = ExportIn IO Table Final Demand =Y ; In Macro Econ Sector GDP (Consumed).

See Table and Pie Chart on Next Slide

Section 2.2.2 KAD GDP Consumed (page 27)different from Gross Product Originating (page 67)

Section 4.1.b page 105

Analysis by Row 31

Theory used: Keynes Aggregate Demand (KAD) Y = C + G + I + X (orM)Section 2.2.2Page 27.

IO Table (IOT) Analysis is powerful. Many (Final Demand) component can be deducted using Leontief IOT synthesis with Keynes Aggregate Demand (KAD)

The Pie diagram shows distribution of ICT Service to component of KAD (ie: Household Consumption of ICT Services; Government Spending on ICT Services; Investment, Export and Inventory /Stock change)

Component Households [C] is large 41.4% related to the user of Social Media OTT apps:Ie: Yahoo mail, Google among youth.

ICT also has big contribute forward linkages Its Output to all 36 sectors (TIO) 54.6%

Analyzing AggregatesDemand

Component

Analyzing Production Cost

of ICT Sector Column 31

Focus on ICT Services(Sector 31) : Contribution 36 Industry sectors 32.5% & Primary Input or GVA 67.5%:

1. Operational Surplus 38%2. Wages & Salary

15%3. Depreciation

14%4. Component Import 3.8%5. Indirect Tax 0.9%

Benchmark : Dissertation TII Sector 31 vs Literature Research De Loitte Group /Google

See Fig 4.2: Quadrant III – This Dissertation Research Total Inter-mediate Input (TII – Row 190) intersect with Sector (Column) 31 Total Input of ICT Services from all 36 Sectors Rp 106.37 Trillion (2010) or 32.5% (Total Backward Linkages of all Sectors), based on Domestic Producer Price (2008) & %1.4 % of PDB (2010) Rp 7,427 Trilliun.Benchmarking with :De Loitte Access Research for Google (see Literature Research) using different statistic methods show Internet economy in NKRI Rp 116 Trillion (2011) or 1.56 % GDP

Economic Indicator2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

GDP (YoY) % Growth 4.6 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.2

GDP (Trilliun Rp) 5,613 6,423 7,427 8,242.00 9,084.00 10,062

PDB per capita USD $2,299.50 $2,895.80 $3,510.60 $3,593.70 $3,498.51

Inflation (e.p) % 2.8 7 3.8 4.3 8.4 5.5

Source: Bisnis(2015) April 10 Ministry of Finance for Tax Ratio

III. ASYMMETRIX WAR BY PROXY – IS IT REAL? HAPPENING IN INDONESIA?

CASE STUDY COMPUTER SOFTWARE

UNILATERAL TOTAL DIPLOMACY ACTORS

IV. PERUMUSAN KEPENTINGAN NASIONAL DALAM PENGEMBANGAN KETAHANAN

CYBERSPACE RI

PERUMUSAN KEPENTINGAN NASIONAL DALAM KETAHANAN CYBERSPACE

• MEMAHAMI ICT TREND & FENOMENA UTK PLANNING ICT ROADMAP BLUE PRINT. (VISI/MISI MUST BE SMART (ACCOUNTABLE – MEASUREABLE – RELIABLE) – GLOBAL TREND: BIG DATA – OOT – IOT – CLOUD COMPUTING – CONVERGENCY – ECOMMERCEINDONESIAN PROBLEM : TERPETAK2X (SILO) DARI ERA JAMAN BATU, AGRIKULTUR, INDUSTRI SAMPAI INFORMASI

• BOTTOM UP / PARTICIPATORY DEVELOPMENT SELAIN TOP DOWN APPROACH

• MEMILIKI INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC INDICATOR & BIG DATA ANALYTICS UNDER COORDINATION OF BPS & DOMESTIC INSTITUTION ( DE LOITTE FOR GOOGLE, IDC GADGET MARKET-PIRACY STUDY FOR BSA – USTR) FOR PLANNING & ROAD MAP

• TOTAL DIPLOMACY : KOLABORASI & KOORDINASI – MULTISTAKEHOLDER PARTNERSHIP ( EXECUTIF – KEMENTRIAN TEKNIS – BAPPENAS - KEMDAG – KEMPRIN – KEMLU& – MENKO EKONOMI MENKOPOLKAM – POLRI – PRIVATE SECTORS ( UKM, START UP, ASOSIASI), AKADEMISI UTK EKONOMI DIBAWAH MENKO EKONOMI DAN UTK CYBER ATTACK DENGAN KEMENTERIAN TEKNIS DIBAWAH KOORDINASI MENKOPOLKAM – CYBER DESK

• NATIONAL INTEREST – BUKAN SILO PROJECTS (EGO SEKTORAL) DAN/SECTOR OR GROUP / INDIVIDUAL INTEREST AND LEADERSHIP. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUKTUR MEMBANGUN PEMERATAAN DESA-KOTA, WILAYAH BARAT DAN TIMUR HILANGKAN KESENJANGAN DIGITAL (DIGITAL DIVIDE – PEMERATAAN ACCESS).

• MENURUNKAN BIAYA LOGISTIK YANG MENURUT WORLD BANK TERTINGGI DI ASEAN (HIGH COST) MEMASUKI ERA ECOMMERCE.

• MEMBANGUN INDUSTRY HULU & SERVICES ICT SEPERTI DI MALAYSIA DAN SINGAPORE DENGAN PRINSIP DIATAS: NASIONAL INTEREST , PERENCANAAN YANG MATANG DAN MELIBATKAN MULTI STAKEHOLDER PARTNERSHIP.

• HILANGKAN HIGHCOST – KKN UNTUK MEMBANGUN PRIVATE SECTOR – PERDAGANGAN DAN IINDUSTRY YANG KONDUSIF DAN BERDAYA SAING. HINDARI PARADIGMA SAPI PERAH / EPUNISHMENT MENIMBULKAN EFEK JERA DNG PAJAK, BEA CUKAI DST.

Perumusan Kepentingan (Ekonomi) Nasional dalam Pengembangan dan

Ketahanan CyberSpace RI

TERIMA KASIH ATAS PERHATIANNYA