Cuatro metodos para Poblacion futura

8/18/2019 Cuatro metodos para Poblacion futura

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METODO DEL INTERES SIMPLE

AÑO POBLACION2000 120425 2859 6021252005 123284 956 6164202010 124240 515 6212002015 124755

prome!o

1247550"0024

20362015

TABLA #INC$LADA A %ORD

AÑO &'!( POBLACION P'!( P'!)1(*P'!( P'!)1(2000 120425 2859 6021252005 123284 956 6164202010 124240 515 6212002015 124755

r prome!oD+&o,-

Po 124755 Po./+! &r+&o 2015 P

r prome!o 0"0024 p+r+ e/ +o &-& 2036


2/22

0"00470"00160"0008

0"0024

130980

r0"00470"00160"0008

0"0024

1309802036


3/22


4/22

METODO DE LA C$R#A NORMAL LOISTICA

! AÑO &'!( POBLACIN P'!( P0P2 'P1(20 2005 123284 15380295420 154355776001 2010 124240 P0)P2 2P1

2 2015 124755 248039 248480

E&oe,P0 P1 P2 2P0P1P2

123284 124240 124755 3"82170E)015

P,:P0 'P,:P0(*1 + Ao &ro1"016729 0"01673 *4"091 2036

P,*P1 P0'P,*P1( P,*P0 P1'P,*P0(

1106 136410600 2062 256241830

Po./+! &r+ &P 125050

p+r+ e/ 2036


5/22

#ERI;ICACINSI C$MPLE

SI C$MPLE

P,125346

Ao &'0(2005

.

*0"63045

3"1


6/22


7/22

METODO DE LOS MINIMOS C$ADRADOS

! < = Lo> =


8/22

B *0"047 0"0000004 50718

A 3"9114 E&oe, +B *0"00003 .

Po./+! Cre!m!e&o por /,&ro

Ar!&m&!o eom&r!o Ar!&m&!o eom&r!o =!+).

0 124755 124755 0"000846 0"0176815 124860 126961 0"000293 0"015979

10 124897 128989 0"000101 0"01455815 124910 130867 0"000035 0"01335620 124914 132615 0"000012 0"012327

25 124916 134250 0"000004 0"011436

Ar!&m&!o eom&r!oPo./+! P 2035 124914 132615Po./+! P 2040 124916 134250

Ao,e,pe, e/@/&!mo e,o


9/22

144333 50718


10/22

541"917387*0"000046

Ireme&o por /,&ro

Ar!&m&!o eom&r!o

1 1535


11/22


12/22


13/22

METODO DE LA PARABOLA C$BICA

AÑO POBLACION (hab)

X Y

2001 121250 -0.7 0.49

2002 121921 -0.6 0.362003 122466 -0.5 0.25

2004 122909 -0.4 0.16

2005 123284 -0.3 0.09

2006 123561 -0.2 0.04

2007 123772 -0.1 0.01

2008 123942 0 0

2009 124094 0.1 0.01

2010 124240 0.2 0.04

2011 124384 0.3 0.09

2012 124513 0.4 0.16

2013 124622 0.5 0.25

2014 124701 0.6 0.36

2015 124755 0.7 0.49

Sumatoria 1854414 0 2.8

AÑO POBLACION (hab)

X X*Y Y

2001 121250 -0.7 -84875

2002 121921 -0.6 -73152.6

2003 122466 -0.5 -61233

2004 122909 -0.4 -49163.6

2005 123284 -0.3 -36985.2

2006 123561 -0.2 -24712.2

2007 123772 -0.1 -12377.2

2008 123942 0 0

2009 124094 0.1 12409.4

2010 124240 0.2 24848

2011 124384 0.3 37315.2

2012 124513 0.4 49805.2

2013 124622 0.5 62311

2014 124701 0.6 74820.6

2015 124755 0.7 87328.5

Sumatoria 1854414 -1.110223E-016 6339.1 15

X2


14/22

E&oe, o!r&!eo e m+&r!e,15 0 2"8 00 2"8 0 0"9352

2"8 0 0"9352 00 0"9352 0 0"36964

Re,o/!eo p+r+ /o, oeF!e&e,

+0 0"15113 0"00000 *0"45249+1 0"00000 2"30459 0"00000+2 *0"45249 0"00000 2"42405+3 0"00000 *5"83068 0"00000

+0 123985"324 ;!+/me&e+1 1721"445 P+r+


15/22

-0.343 0.2401 -0.16807 0.117649

-0.216 0.1296 -0.07776 0.046656-0.125 0.0625 -0.03125 0.015625

-0.064 0.0256 -0.01024 0.004096

-0.027 0.0081 -0.00243 0.000729

-0.008 0.0016 -0.00032 0.000064

-0.001 0.0001 -0.00001 0.000001

0 0 0 0

0.001 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001

0.008 0.0016 0.00032 0.000064

0.027 0.0081 0.00243 0.000729

0.064 0.0256 0.01024 0.004096

0.125 0.0625 0.03125 0.015625

0.216 0.1296 0.07776 0.046656

0.343 0.2401 0.16807 0.117649

0 0.9352 0 0.36964

59412.5 -41588.75

43891.56 -26334.936

30616.5 -15308.25

19665.44 -7866.176

11095.56 -3328.668

4942.44 -988.488

1237.72 -123.772

0 0

1240.94 124.094

4969.6 993.92

11194.56 3358.368

19922.08 7968.832

31155.5 15577.75

44892.36 26935.416

61129.95 42790.965

345366.71 2210.305

X3 X4 X5 X6

X2*Y X3*Y


16/22

+0 1854414+1 6339"1+2 345366"71+3 2210"305

0"00000 1854414*5"83068 6339"10"00000 345366"7117"45713 2210"305

Ao &ro 203628


17/22

AÑO POBLACIN X Y

1993 101428 -1 1 *1 1 *1

2000 120425 -0.5 0"25 *0"125 0"0625 *0"031252005 123284 0 0 0 0 02010 124240 0.5 0"25 0"125 0"0625 0"031252015 124755 1 1 1 1 1

Sumatoria 594132 0 2.5 0 2.125 0

AÑO POBLACIN X X*Y Y

1993 101428 *1 *101428 101428 *1014282000 120425 *0"5 *60212"5 30106"25 *15053"1252005 123284

0 0 0 02010 124240 0"5 62120 31060 155302015 124755 1 124755 124755 124755

Sumatoria 594132 0 25234.5 287349.25 23803.875

5

E&oe, o!r&!eo e m+&r!e,5 0 2"5 0 +0 5941320 2"5 0 2"125 +1 25235

2"5 0 2"125 0 +2 2873490 2"125 0 2"03125 +3 23804

Re,o/!eo p+r+ /o, oeF!e&e,

+0 0"486 0"000 *0"571 0"000 594132+1 0"000 3"611 0"000 *3"778 25235+2 *0"571 0"000 1"143 0"000 287349+3 0"000 *3"778 0"000 4"444 23804

+0 124379 ;!+/me&e Ao &ro 2036+1 1199 P+r+


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19/22

1993 101428

2000 120425

1 2005 123284

0"015625 2010 1242400 2015 124755

0"0156251

2.03125 1981 70585

1993 101428

2000 120425

2010 124240

2015 124755

X6


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Cuatro metodos para Poblacion futura

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